NYSE: BRO · Insurance Brokers
Brown & Brown (BRO) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Brown & Brown (BRO) at $64.09 a share. The stock last closed at $59.91, which puts the model's fair value 7.0% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Brown & Brown, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Brown & Brown, Inc. operates as an insurance brokerage firm, providing a diverse range of products and services throughout the United States, Bermuda, Canada, Ireland, the United Kingdom, and the Cayman Islands.
Faircurve's model valued Brown & Brown, Inc. on 3 Oct 2026 at $64.09 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $64.92, so the fair value moved -1.3%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $53.47 to $77.70, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock, and calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026); ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
The company's overall quality score is 66 out of 100 against comparable companies, with profitability at 40 (ROIC 7.8%, peer median 9.9%), earnings quality at 78 (FCF / net income 1.24x, peer median 1.19x), growth quality at 87 (Revenue growth, trailing 26.6%, peer median 10.3%), capital discipline at 92 (Net buybacks / market value 2.9%, peer median 0.0%), balance sheet at 52 (Net debt / EBITDA 2.92x, peer median 2.99x), and stability at 67 (EBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y 1.2 pts, peer median 1.8 pts). Faircurve's model compares it with Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company (WTW), Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG), Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH), Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. (RYAN), and CorVel Corporation (CRVL). The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports range from +8.9% on 27 Jul 2026 to -11.1% on 28 Jul 2025, with a median size of 6.0%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give BRO?
The calibrated range for BRO over 63 trading days is $53.47 to $77.70. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $45.83 to $86.84. In 57% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does BRO score on business quality?
Brown & Brown's overall quality score is 66 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 40 | 7.8%ROIC | 9.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 78 | 1.24xFCF / net income | 1.19x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 87 | 26.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 10.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 92 | 2.9%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 52 | 2.92xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.99x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 67 | 1.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.8 pts |
How does BRO compare with similar companies?
The companies in insurance brokers closest to Brown & Brown in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTW Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company | $288.61 | $298.12 | +3.3% | Fairly valued |
| AON Aon plc | $269.45 | $282.34 | +4.8% | Low evidence grade |
| AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. | $226.11 | $236.01 | +4.4% | Fairly valued |
| MRSH Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. | $170.06 | $170.02 | 0.0% | Fairly valued |
| RYAN Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. | $37.67 | $48.09 | +27.7% | Undervalued |
| CRVL CorVel Corporation | $75.47 | $75.47 | 0.0% | Fairly valued |
| GSHD Goosehead Insurance, Inc | $45.51 | $45.49 | 0.0% | Low evidence grade |
When does BRO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Brown & Brown's next earnings report is scheduled for 26 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 1 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 11.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 49 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How BRO moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 27 Jul 2026 | +8.9% |
| 27 Apr 2026 | -4.2% |
| 26 Jan 2026 | -6.4% |
| 27 Oct 2025 | -6.4% |
| 28 Jul 2025 | -11.1% |
| 28 Apr 2025 | -5.6% |
| 27 Jan 2025 | -0.9% |
| 28 Oct 2024 | +1.0% |
Brown & Brown at a glance
Brown & Brown, Inc. operates as an insurance brokerage firm, providing a diverse range of products and services throughout the United States, Bermuda, Canada, Ireland, the United Kingdom, and the Cayman Islands.
- Market value
- $20.0B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Insurance Brokers
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $7.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +17.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- -0.13
- First valued by Faircurve
- 4 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Brown & Brown on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for BRO was $64.92. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $64.09, a change of -1.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Brown & Brown's valuation
Is Brown & Brown stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, BRO reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $64.09 a share against a last close of $59.91, a gap of +7.0%.
What is BRO's fair value?
$64.09 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $45.83 to $86.84.
What price range does the model give BRO?
$53.47 to $77.70 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Brown & Brown report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 26 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has BRO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was -11.1% around the report of 28 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for BRO is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.