NASDAQ: WTW · Insurance Brokers
Willis Towers Watson Public (WTW) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Willis Towers Watson Public (WTW) at $298.12 a share. The stock last closed at $288.61, which puts the model's fair value 3.3% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company (WTW) functions as a global provider of comprehensive consulting, brokerage, and solutions services, structured across two primary divisions. These are Health, Wealth and Career, and Risk and Broking.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $298.12 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -1.9% since the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $303.78. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $248.73 to $361.41, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade for this valuation is Medium.
The company's overall quality score is 42 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability scores 52, earnings quality 21, growth quality 38, capital discipline 77, balance sheet 46, and stability 21. The model compares Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company (WTW) with Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO), Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG), Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH), Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. (RYAN), and CorVel Corporation (CRVL). The stock has moved by a median of 5.3% around its last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give WTW?
The calibrated range for WTW over 63 trading days is $248.73 to $361.41. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $197.16 to $432.45. In 53% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does WTW score on business quality?
Willis Towers Watson Public's overall quality score is 42 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 52 | 13.5%ROIC | 24.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 21 | 1.08xFCF / net income | 1.46x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 38 | -2.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 12.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 77 | 6.3%Net buybacks / market value | 2.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 46 | 2.04xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.22x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 21 | 7.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.7 pts |
How does WTW compare with similar companies?
The companies in insurance brokers closest to Willis Towers Watson Public in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRO Brown & Brown, Inc. | $59.91 | $64.09 | +7.0% | Fairly valued |
| AON Aon plc | $269.45 | $282.34 | +4.8% | Low evidence grade |
| AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. | $226.11 | $236.01 | +4.4% | Fairly valued |
| MRSH Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. | $170.06 | $170.02 | 0.0% | Fairly valued |
| RYAN Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. | $37.67 | $48.09 | +27.7% | Undervalued |
| CRVL CorVel Corporation | $75.47 | $75.47 | 0.0% | Fairly valued |
| GSHD Goosehead Insurance, Inc | $45.51 | $45.49 | 0.0% | Low evidence grade |
When does WTW report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Willis Towers Watson Public's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 9.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How WTW moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | +6.3% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | -11.6% |
| 3 Feb 2026 | +7.3% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | -1.4% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | +4.3% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | -7.2% |
| 4 Feb 2025 | -3.0% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | +2.0% |
Willis Towers Watson Public at a glance
Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company (WTW) functions as a global provider of comprehensive consulting, brokerage, and solutions services. Its operations are structured across two primary divisions: Health, Wealth and Career, and Risk and Broking.
- Market value
- $26.8B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Insurance Brokers
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $10.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +7.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- 0.11
- First valued by Faircurve
- 4 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Willis Towers Watson Public on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for WTW was $303.78. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $298.12, a change of -1.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Willis Towers Watson Public's valuation
Is Willis Towers Watson Public stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, WTW reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $298.12 a share against a last close of $288.61, a gap of +3.3%.
What is WTW's fair value?
$298.12 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $197.16 to $432.45.
What price range does the model give WTW?
$248.73 to $361.41 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Willis Towers Watson Public report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has WTW moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was -11.6% around the report of 30 Apr 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for WTW is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.