NASDAQ: GSHD · Insurance Brokers
Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) at $47.27 a share. The stock last closed at $56.88, which puts the model's fair value 16.9% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Goosehead Insurance, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $47.98 to $47.27 (-1.5%). The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $56.88 is 16.9% above it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextNo report date on file. Options prices imply a move of about 22% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give GSHD?
The calibrated range for GSHD over 63 trading days is $45.41 to $75.02. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that GSHD's own options imply (76% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $25.44 to $80.36. In 50% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Goosehead Insurance, Inc is the parent entity for Goosehead Financial, LLC, which delivers personal lines insurance brokerage services throughout the United States.
Faircurve's model puts the fair value at $47.27 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations, on 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $47.98, so the fair value moved -1.5%. In the model's words, "The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $42.66 to $66.97, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Faircurve's model gives the company an overall quality score of 80 out of 100 against comparable companies. Profitability scores 100, with ROIC at 53.6% against a peer median of 9.9%. Capital discipline scores 94, with net buybacks at 7.8% of market value against a peer median of 0.0%. Stability scores 33, with EBITDA margin downside volatility over 5y at 4.3 pts against a peer median of 2.2 pts. The model compares the company with CorVel Corporation (CRVL), Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. (RYAN), Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO), Aon plc (AON), Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) and Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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Faircurve's note after each US session, in your inbox. No account needed.
When does GSHD report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 14.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. GSHD's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 21.9% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across GSHD's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 10.2%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in GSHD
How does GSHD score on business quality?
Goosehead Insurance's overall quality score is 80 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 53.6%ROIC | 9.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 90 | 2.34xFCF / net income | 6.67x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 68 | 16.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 20.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 94 | 7.8%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 56 | 3.02xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.58x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 33 | 4.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.2 pts |
How does GSHD compare with similar companies?
The companies in insurance brokers closest to Goosehead Insurance in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRVL CorVel Corporation | $85.91 | $81.64 | -5.0% | Fairly valued |
| RYAN Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. | $48.26 | $60.99 | +26.4% | Undervalued |
| BRO Brown & Brown, Inc. | $74.38 | $73.28 | -1.5% | Fairly valued |
| WTW Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company | $336.51 | $354.17 | +5.2% | Low evidence grade |
| AON Aon plc | $344.40 | $312.94 | -9.1% | Fairly valued |
| AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. | $288.11 | $279.37 | -3.0% | Fairly valued |
| MRSH Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. | $209.43 | $201.24 | -3.9% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for GSHD, the peer-implied price, is $43.65 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Goosehead Insurance at a glance
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. functions as the parent entity for Goosehead Financial, LLC, an enterprise dedicated to delivering personal lines insurance brokerage services throughout the United States.
- Market value
- $1.7B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Insurance Brokers
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $480M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +16.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- -0.77
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Goosehead Insurance on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for GSHD was $47.98. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $47.27, a change of -1.5%. The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Goosehead Insurance's valuation
Is Goosehead Insurance stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts GSHD's fair value at $47.27 a share against a last close of $56.88, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is GSHD's fair value?
$47.27 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $25.44 to $80.36.
What price range does the model give GSHD?
$45.41 to $75.02 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
How much has GSHD moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 10.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +14.8% around the report of 24 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for GSHD is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on GSHD
The model holds no idea open on GSHD today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on GSHD with their outcomes. A free account is enough.