NYSE: RYAN · Insurance Brokers
Ryan Specialty (RYAN) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 5 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values Ryan Specialty (RYAN) at $60.99 a share. The stock last closed at $48.26, which puts the model's fair value 26.4% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 5 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $56.56 to $60.99 (+7.8%).
What the model makes of itThe price of $48.26 is 26.4% below it: Undervalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 11 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 14% either way over the next month. On the model's Scorecard Leaders list since 21 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give RYAN?
The calibrated range for RYAN over 63 trading days is $41.87 to $57.46. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that RYAN's own options imply (48% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $36.55 to $93.36. In 65% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 5 Nov 2026
Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. provides specialised insurance products and comprehensive solutions for insurance brokers, agents and carriers.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $60.99 a share on 5 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 31 Oct 2026, gave $56.56, so the model's fair value moved +7.8%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $41.71 to $55.83. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, and is calibrated weekly against realised prices, using 6,661 past valuations refreshed on 31 Oct 2026. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence as Medium. That grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Ryan Specialty scores 59 out of 100 on the model's overall quality measure against comparable companies. Three factors stand out. Growth quality scores 72, with trailing revenue growth of 21.3% against a peer median of 16.2%. Earnings quality scores 69, with FCF to net income of 2.59x against a peer median of 1.26x. Balance sheet scores 29, with net debt to EBITDA of 4.50x against a peer median of 3.45x. The model compares the company with CorVel, Brown & Brown, Aon, Arthur J. Gallagher, Marsh & McLennan, Goosehead Insurance and Willis Towers Watson.
Written from the figures on this page for the 5 Nov 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does RYAN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Ryan Specialty's next earnings report is scheduled for 11 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 8.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. RYAN's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 13.8% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across RYAN's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.8%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in RYAN
How does RYAN score on business quality?
Ryan Specialty's overall quality score is 59 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 57 | 11.7%ROIC | 11.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 69 | 2.59xFCF / net income | 1.26x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 72 | 21.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 16.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 64 | 7.8%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 29 | 4.50xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.45x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 43 | 2.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.8 pts |
How does RYAN compare with similar companies?
The companies in insurance brokers closest to Ryan Specialty in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRVL CorVel Corporation | $85.91 | $81.64 | -5.0% | Fairly valued |
| GSHD Goosehead Insurance, Inc | $56.88 | $47.27 | -16.9% | Low evidence grade |
| BRO Brown & Brown, Inc. | $74.38 | $73.28 | -1.5% | Fairly valued |
| WTW Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company | $336.51 | $354.17 | +5.2% | Low evidence grade |
| AON Aon plc | $344.40 | $312.94 | -9.1% | Fairly valued |
| AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. | $288.11 | $279.37 | -3.0% | Fairly valued |
| MRSH Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. | $209.43 | $201.24 | -3.9% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for RYAN, the peer-implied price, is $89.16 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Ryan Specialty at a glance
Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. functions as a provider of specialized insurance products and comprehensive solutions for the benefit of insurance brokers, agents, and carriers.
- Market value
- $5.4B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Insurance Brokers
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +7.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- -0.53
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. RYAN was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Ryan Specialty on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 31 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for RYAN was $56.56. As of 5 Nov 2026 it is $60.99, a change of +7.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Ryan Specialty's valuation
Is Ryan Specialty stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, RYAN reads as Undervalued as of 5 Nov 2026. The model's fair value is $60.99 a share against a last close of $48.26, a gap of +26.4%.
What is RYAN's fair value?
$60.99 a share as of 5 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $36.55 to $93.36.
What price range does the model give RYAN?
$41.87 to $57.46 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Ryan Specialty report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 11 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has RYAN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was -12.6% around the report of 30 Apr 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for RYAN is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on RYAN
The model has an idea open on RYAN under Scorecard Leaders since 21 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on RYAN with their outcomes. A free account is enough.