NASDAQ: CAR · Rental & Leasing Services
Avis Budget Group (CAR) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Avis Budget Group (CAR) at $152.61 a share. The stock last closed at $120.44, which puts the model's fair value 26.7% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Avis Budget Group, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $144.69 to $152.61 (+5.5%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: part of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $120.44 is 26.7% below it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextNext report on 17 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 19% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give CAR?
The calibrated range for CAR over 63 trading days is $98.80 to $153.62. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CAR's own options imply (67% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $0.00 to $557.62. In 54% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Avis Budget Group, Inc. is a global provider of mobility solutions. It offers vehicle rental for cars and trucks, alongside car-sharing, to businesses and individual consumers.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $152.61 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $144.69, so the fair value moved +5.5%. The model's own words give the reason: "The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: part of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $98.34 to $152.71. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, and calibrated weekly against realised prices. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence as low, so no verdict is shown.
Quality scores 49 out of 100 against comparable companies. Earnings quality is highest at 100. Stability is lowest at 11: five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility is 10.4 pts against a peer median of 3.4 pts. The balance sheet scores 22, with net debt to EBITDA of 5.16x against a peer median of 6.17x. The comparable companies are WillScot Holdings Corporation (WSC) and United Rentals, Inc. (URI), which have fair values on the site, plus four with no verdict on this date.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
The Global Pulse
Faircurve's note after each US session, in your inbox. No account needed.
When does CAR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Avis Budget Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 17 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 8.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 7 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. CAR's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 19.2% over one month.
Around its last 4 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across CAR's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.3%.
Earlier reports are left out: the options record before 24 Apr 2026 is not comparable.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in CAR
How does CAR score on business quality?
Avis Budget Group's overall quality score is 49 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 55 | 7.9%ROIC | 2.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 30 | -1.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 28 | 0.3%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 22 | 5.16xNet debt / EBITDA | 6.17x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 11 | 10.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.4 pts |
How does CAR compare with similar companies?
The companies in rental & leasing services closest to Avis Budget Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSC WillScot Holdings Corporation | $17.84 | $19.38 | +8.6% | Fairly valued |
| GATX GATX Corporation | $186.42 | $139.77 | -25.0% | Low evidence grade |
| VSTS Vestis Corporation | $14.12 | $15.14 | +7.2% | Low evidence grade |
| R Ryder System, Inc. | $270.16 | $477.73 | +76.8% | Gap wider than 60% |
| HTZ Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. | $1.79 | $6.05 | +238.0% | Gap wider than 60% |
| URI United Rentals, Inc. | $1,043.78 | $1,412.36 | +35.3% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for CAR, the peer-implied price, is $395.27 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All rental & leasing services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Avis Budget Group at a glance
Avis Budget Group, Inc. is a prominent global provider of diverse mobility solutions, delivering vehicle rental services for both cars and trucks, alongside car-sharing options, to a broad clientele encompassing businesses and individual consumers.
- Market value
- $3.8B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Rental & Leasing Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $11.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -0.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.63
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Avis Budget Group on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for CAR was $144.69. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $152.61, a change of +5.5%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: part of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Avis Budget Group's valuation
Is Avis Budget Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts CAR's fair value at $152.61 a share against a last close of $120.44, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is CAR's fair value?
$152.61 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $0.00 to $557.62.
What price range does the model give CAR?
$98.80 to $153.62 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Avis Budget Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 17 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CAR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was -20.8% around the report of 18 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CAR is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on CAR
The model holds no idea open on CAR today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on CAR with their outcomes. A free account is enough.