NYSE: URI · Rental & Leasing Services
United Rentals (URI) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values United Rentals (URI) at $1,347.26 a share. The stock last closed at $1,081.04, which puts the model's fair value 24.6% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. United Rentals, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
United Rentals, Inc., founded in 1997, is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut. It functions as an equipment rental firm through its various subsidiaries, with operations divided into General Rentals and Specialty.
Faircurve's model valued United Rentals, Inc. at $1,347.26 a share on 26 Sep 2026, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $1,306.98, so the fair value moved +3.1%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $947.90 to $1,360.28, which held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade is High.
The overall quality score for the company is 59 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares United Rentals, Inc. with Ryder System, Inc. and WillScot Holdings Corporation. The stock moved around its last 8 earnings reports, with a median size of 11.5% ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give URI?
The calibrated range for URI over 63 trading days is $947.90 to $1,360.28. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that URI's own options imply (51% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $1,057.56 to $1,686.54. In 81% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does URI score on business quality?
United Rentals's overall quality score is 59 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 67 | 12.8%ROIC | 10.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 42 | 0.24xFCF / net income | 0.78x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 74 | 4.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 1.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 39 | 3.2%Net buybacks / market value | 1.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 49 | 2.26xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.25x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 67 | 0.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.3 pts |
How does URI compare with similar companies?
The companies in rental & leasing services closest to United Rentals in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R Ryder System, Inc. | $237.24 | $347.03 | +46.3% | Undervalued |
| GATX GATX Corporation | $171.03 | $118.18 | -30.9% | Low evidence grade |
| CAR Avis Budget Group, Inc. | $111.22 | $124.00 | +11.5% | Low evidence grade |
| WSC WillScot Holdings Corporation | $17.30 | $17.62 | +1.8% | Fairly valued |
| VSTS Vestis Corporation | $14.03 | $14.51 | +3.4% | Low evidence grade |
| HTZ Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. | $1.76 | $8.65 | +391.5% | Data under review |
All rental & leasing services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does URI report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
United Rentals's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. URI's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 14.7% over one month.
How URI moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 11.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2026 | +12.4% |
| 22 Apr 2026 | +22.4% |
| 28 Jan 2026 | -13.3% |
| 22 Oct 2025 | -8.8% |
| 23 Jul 2025 | +10.6% |
| 23 Apr 2025 | +12.6% |
| 29 Jan 2025 | +0.9% |
| 23 Oct 2024 | -2.7% |
United Rentals at a glance
United Rentals, Inc., founded in 1997 and headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, functions as a prominent equipment rental firm through its various subsidiaries. The company's operations are divided into two main divisions: General Rentals and Specialty.
- Market value
- $65.2B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Rental & Leasing Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $18.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +10.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 15
- Beta to the US market
- 0.94
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices United Rentals on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for URI was $1,306.98. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $1,347.26, a change of +3.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about United Rentals's valuation
Is United Rentals stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, URI reads as Undervalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $1,347.26 a share against a last close of $1,081.04, a gap of +24.6%.
What is URI's fair value?
$1,347.26 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $1,057.56 to $1,686.54.
What price range does the model give URI?
$947.90 to $1,360.28 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does United Rentals report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has URI moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 11.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +22.4% around the report of 22 Apr 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for URI is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.