NYSE: R ยท Rental & Leasing Services
Ryder System (R) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 19 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Ryder System (R) at $350.73 a share. The stock last closed at $238.54, which puts the model's fair value 47.0% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 18 Sep 2026. Ryder System, Inc.
What price range does the model give R?
The calibrated range for R over 63 trading days is $220.26 to $277.29. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that R's own options imply (33% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $256.20 to $457.13. In 85% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does R score on business quality?
Ryder System's overall quality score is 55 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 51 | 6.3%ROIC | 7.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 73 | 1.39xFCF / net income | 0.99x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 33 | -0.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 0.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 62 | 6.2%Net buybacks / market value | 0.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 42 | 3.16xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.81x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 85 | 0.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.3 pts |
How does R compare with similar companies?
The companies in rental & leasing services closest to Ryder System in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GATX GATX Corporation | $177.89 | $117.16 | -34.1% | Low model confidence |
| CAR Avis Budget Group, Inc. | $117.71 | $139.93 | +18.9% | Low model confidence |
| WSC WillScot Holdings Corporation | $18.17 | $17.89 | -1.5% | Fairly valued |
| VSTS Vestis Corporation | $13.82 | $14.62 | +5.8% | Low model confidence |
| URI United Rentals, Inc. | $1,013.91 | $1,306.98 | +28.9% | Undervalued |
| HTZ Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. | $1.82 | $8.77 | +381.9% | Data under review |
All rental & leasing services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does R report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Ryder System's next earnings report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 18 Sep 2026 imply a move of about 7.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 27 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. R's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 9.4% over one month.
How R moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2026 | -3.1% |
| 23 Apr 2026 | +11.3% |
| 11 Feb 2026 | -2.0% |
| 23 Oct 2025 | -11.8% |
| 24 Jul 2025 | +5.7% |
| 23 Apr 2025 | +3.9% |
| 12 Feb 2025 | +1.8% |
| 24 Oct 2024 | -3.6% |
Ryder System at a glance
Ryder System, Inc. functions as a worldwide provider of logistics and transportation services, operating through three distinct segments: Fleet Management Solutions (FMS), Supply Chain Solutions (SCS), and Dedicated Transportation Solutions (DTS).
- Market value
- $9.1B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Rental & Leasing Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $13.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +4.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 1.11
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Ryder System on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 12 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for R was $356.67. As of 19 Sep 2026 it is $350.73, a change of -1.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Ryder System's valuation
Is Ryder System stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, R reads as Undervalued as of 19 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $350.73 a share against a last close of $238.54, a gap of +47.0%.
What is R's fair value?
$350.73 a share as of 19 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $256.20 to $457.13.
What price range does the model give R?
$220.26 to $277.29 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026.
When does Ryder System report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has R moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was -11.8% around the report of 23 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
Model confidence for R is medium. Confidence reflects how complete the inputs are and how well comparable companies explain the valuation. It is not a probability that the price reaches the fair value.