NASDAQ: HTZ ยท Rental & Leasing Services
Hertz Global (HTZ) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Hertz Global (HTZ) at $8.65 a share. The stock last closed at $1.76, which puts the model's fair value 391.5% above the price. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
- The fair value sits implausibly far from the market price, which usually points to a data problem.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Hertz Global Holdings, Inc.
What price range does the model give HTZ?
The calibrated range for HTZ over 63 trading days is $1.36 to $2.76. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that HTZ's own options imply (99% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $0.00 to $38.96. In 59% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does HTZ score on business quality?
Hertz Global's overall quality score is 37 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 13 | 1.3%ROIC | 4.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 92 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 36 | -6.0%Revenue growth, trailing | -1.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 25 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 13 | 6.96xNet debt / EBITDA | 6.90x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 34 | 5.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 4.3 pts |
How does HTZ compare with similar companies?
The companies in rental & leasing services closest to Hertz Global in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VSTS Vestis Corporation | $14.03 | $14.51 | +3.4% | Low evidence grade |
| WSC WillScot Holdings Corporation | $17.30 | $17.62 | +1.8% | Fairly valued |
| CAR Avis Budget Group, Inc. | $111.22 | $124.00 | +11.5% | Low evidence grade |
| GATX GATX Corporation | $171.03 | $118.18 | -30.9% | Low evidence grade |
| R Ryder System, Inc. | $237.24 | $347.03 | +46.3% | Undervalued |
| URI United Rentals, Inc. | $1,081.04 | $1,347.26 | +24.6% | Undervalued |
All rental & leasing services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does HTZ report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Hertz Global's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
On 2 Oct 2026, HTZ's 30 day implied volatility worked out to a move of about 28.7% over one month, in either direction. That is a size, not a direction.
How HTZ moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 9.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | +45.5% |
| 7 May 2026 | -6.6% |
| 26 Feb 2026 | +2.7% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | +35.2% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | -0.2% |
| 12 May 2025 | +38.4% |
| 13 Feb 2025 | -4.9% |
| 12 Nov 2024 | +12.5% |
Hertz Global at a glance
Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. operates as a leading player in the global vehicle rental industry. Its business is structured into two primary divisions: the Americas Rental Car segment and the International Rental Car segment.
- Market value
- $549M
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Rental & Leasing Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $9.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +8.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 1.13
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Hertz Global on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for HTZ was $8.77. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $8.65, a change of -1.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Hertz Global's valuation
Is Hertz Global stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts HTZ's fair value at $8.65 a share against a last close of $1.76, as of 26 Sep 2026. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
What is HTZ's fair value?
$8.65 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $0.00 to $38.96.
What price range does the model give HTZ?
$1.36 to $2.76 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Hertz Global report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has HTZ moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 9.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +45.5% around the report of 6 Aug 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for HTZ is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.