NASDAQ: CHEF · Food Distribution
Chefs' Warehouse (CHEF) fair value and price range
As of 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Chefs' Warehouse (CHEF) at $103.94 a share. The stock last closed at $116.42, which puts the model's fair value 10.7% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 29 Sep 2026
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. focuses on supplying high-end and gourmet food products across both the United States and Canada. The company operates through its various subsidiaries.
On 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $103.94 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +1.0% since the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $102.86. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $87.20 to $126.74, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock, calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The overall quality score is 56 out of 100, a score against comparable companies. The model compares it with Performance Food Group Co (PFGC), US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD), and Sysco Corporation (SYY). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports show changes from the close before each report to the close after it, with a median size, ignoring direction, of 11.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 29 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CHEF?
The calibrated range for CHEF over 63 trading days is $87.20 to $126.74. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $60.33 to $167.32. In 45% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CHEF score on business quality?
Chefs' Warehouse's overall quality score is 56 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 51 | 8.6%ROIC | 7.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 61 | 1.37xFCF / net income | 2.14x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 54 | 9.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 57 | 0.3%Net buybacks / market value | 1.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 59 | 1.98xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.95x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 61 | 0.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.4 pts |
How does CHEF compare with similar companies?
The companies in food distribution closest to Chefs' Warehouse in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNFI United Natural Foods, Inc. | $45.59 | $50.93 | +11.7% | Low evidence grade |
| PFGC Performance Food Group Co | $93.85 | $95.52 | +1.8% | Fairly valued |
| USFD US Foods Holding Corp. | $96.92 | $96.62 | -0.3% | Fairly valued |
| SYY Sysco Corporation | $77.49 | $82.17 | +6.0% | Fairly valued |
When does CHEF report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Chefs' Warehouse's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How CHEF moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 11.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | +12.0% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | +20.8% |
| 11 Feb 2026 | +3.7% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | +2.3% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | +11.4% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | +17.1% |
| 12 Feb 2025 | +16.0% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | -3.2% |
Chefs' Warehouse at a glance
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. (CHEF), operating through its various subsidiaries, focuses on supplying high-end and gourmet food products across both the United States and Canada.
- Market value
- $4.5B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Food Distribution
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +10.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 0.44
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Chefs' Warehouse on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CHEF was $102.86. As of 29 Sep 2026 it is $103.94, a change of +1.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Chefs' Warehouse's valuation
Is Chefs' Warehouse stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts CHEF's fair value at $103.94 a share against a last close of $116.42, as of 29 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is CHEF's fair value?
$103.94 a share as of 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $60.33 to $167.32.
What price range does the model give CHEF?
$87.20 to $126.74 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Chefs' Warehouse report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CHEF moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 11.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +20.8% around the report of 29 Apr 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CHEF is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.