NYSE: PFGC · Food Distribution
Performance Food Group (PFGC) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 5 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values Performance Food Group (PFGC) at $115.06 a share. The stock last closed at $109.68, which puts the model's fair value 4.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Performance Food Group Co.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 5 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $103.44 to $115.06 (+11.2%).
What the model makes of itThe price of $109.68 is 4.9% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 3 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 8% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give PFGC?
The calibrated range for PFGC over 63 trading days is $100.69 to $121.83. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that PFGC's own options imply (29% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $74.38 to $167.02. In 54% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 5 Nov 2026
Performance Food Group Company, through its subsidiaries, markets and distributes food and food-related products in North America. It operates through three segments: Foodservice, Convenience and Specialty.
On 5 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model put the fair value of PFGC at $115.06 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 31 Oct 2026, gave $103.44, so the fair value moved +11.2%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $100.40 to $121.99. It is built around the volatility implied by the stock's options and calibrated weekly against realised prices. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, across 6,661 past valuations. The evidence grade is Medium, based on input completeness, comparable companies and the width of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model's overall quality score is 53 out of 100, a composite of six factors. Earnings quality and stability both score 88. Earnings quality shows FCF to net income of 2.81x, against a peer median of 1.32x. Stability shows EBITDA margin downside volatility of 0.3 pts over five years, against a peer median of 0.4 pts. The balance sheet scores 18, with net debt to EBITDA at 5.04x against a peer median of 4.07x. The model compares the company with US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) and Sysco Corporation (SYY).
Written from the figures on this page for the 5 Nov 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
The Global Pulse
Faircurve's note after each US session, in your inbox. No account needed.
When does PFGC report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Performance Food Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 7.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 42 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. PFGC's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 8.3% over one month.
On 4 Nov 2026 PFGC moved 13.5% in one session, against the 2.3% a day that options had priced: 6.0 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across PFGC's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.1%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in PFGC
How does PFGC score on business quality?
Performance Food Group's overall quality score is 53 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 26 | 5.3%ROIC | 7.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 88 | 2.81xFCF / net income | 1.32x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 54 | 7.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 63 | 0.1%Net buybacks / market value | 1.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 18 | 5.04xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.07x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 88 | 0.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.4 pts |
How does PFGC compare with similar companies?
The companies in food distribution closest to Performance Food Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USFD US Foods Holding Corp. | $106.85 | $104.60 | -2.1% | Fairly valued |
| SYY Sysco Corporation | $75.24 | $86.97 | +15.6% | Undervalued |
| CHEF The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. | $103.35 | $98.61 | -4.6% | Low evidence grade |
| UNFI United Natural Foods, Inc. | $46.01 | $51.57 | +12.1% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for PFGC, the peer-implied price, is $134.03 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Performance Food Group at a glance
Performance Food Group Company, through its subsidiaries, engages in the marketing and distribution of food and food-related products in North America. It operates through three segments: Foodservice, Convenience, and Specialty.
- Market value
- $15.6B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Food Distribution
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $73.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +7.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 0.18
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. PFGC was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Performance Food Group on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 31 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for PFGC was $103.44. As of 5 Nov 2026 it is $115.06, a change of +11.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Performance Food Group's valuation
Is Performance Food Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, PFGC reads as Fairly valued as of 5 Nov 2026. The model's fair value is $115.06 a share against a last close of $109.68, a gap of +4.9%.
What is PFGC's fair value?
$115.06 a share as of 5 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $74.38 to $167.02.
What price range does the model give PFGC?
$100.69 to $121.83 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Performance Food Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PFGC moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was +13.6% around the report of 4 Nov 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PFGC is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on PFGC
The model holds no idea open on PFGC today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on PFGC with their outcomes. A free account is enough.