NYSE: SYY · Food Distribution
Sysco (SYY) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 27 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Sysco (SYY) at $82.17 a share. The stock last closed at $77.49, which puts the model's fair value 6.0% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Sysco Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 27 Sep 2026
Sysco Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the marketing and distribution of various food and related products to the foodservice or food-away-from-home industry in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, and internationally.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $82.17 a share on 27 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $84.03, so the fair value moved -2.2%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $68.94 to $100.19, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score is 54 out of 100, against comparable companies. The model compares the company with US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) and Performance Food Group Co (PFGC). The stock moved -0.9% on 4 Aug 2026, -1.8% on 28 Apr 2026, +10.4% on 27 Jan 2026, -4.8% on 28 Oct 2025, -0.3% on 29 Jul 2025, +1.4% on 29 Apr 2025, -6.4% on 28 Jan 2025, and -1.1% on 29 Oct 2024.
Written from the figures on this page for the 27 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give SYY?
The calibrated range for SYY over 63 trading days is $68.94 to $100.19. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $65.27 to $100.70. In 56% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does SYY score on business quality?
Sysco's overall quality score is 54 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 64 | 15.1%ROIC | 11.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 46 | 1.10xFCF / net income | 1.13x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 42 | 3.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 2.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 72 | 0.5%Net buybacks / market value | 0.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 27 | 3.44xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.85x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 70 | 0.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.5 pts |
How does SYY compare with similar companies?
The companies in food distribution closest to Sysco in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USFD US Foods Holding Corp. | $96.92 | $96.62 | -0.3% | Fairly valued |
| PFGC Performance Food Group Co | $93.85 | $95.52 | +1.8% | Fairly valued |
| CHEF The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. | $116.42 | $103.94 | -10.7% | Low evidence grade |
| UNFI United Natural Foods, Inc. | $45.59 | $50.93 | +11.7% | Low evidence grade |
When does SYY report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Sysco's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How SYY moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | -0.9% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | -1.8% |
| 27 Jan 2026 | +10.4% |
| 28 Oct 2025 | -4.8% |
| 29 Jul 2025 | -0.3% |
| 29 Apr 2025 | +1.4% |
| 28 Jan 2025 | -6.4% |
| 29 Oct 2024 | -1.1% |
Sysco at a glance
Sysco Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the marketing and distribution of various food and related products to the foodservice or food-away-from-home industry in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, and internationally.
- Market value
- $37.5B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Food Distribution
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $90.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +6.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 0.18
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Sysco on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for SYY was $84.03. As of 27 Sep 2026 it is $82.17, a change of -2.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Sysco's valuation
Is Sysco stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, SYY reads as Fairly valued as of 27 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $82.17 a share against a last close of $77.49, a gap of +6.0%.
What is SYY's fair value?
$82.17 a share as of 27 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $65.27 to $100.70.
What price range does the model give SYY?
$68.94 to $100.19 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Sysco report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SYY moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +10.4% around the report of 27 Jan 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SYY is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.