NYSE: CIEN ยท Communication Equipment
Ciena (CIEN) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Ciena (CIEN) at $385.68 a share. The stock last closed at $391.34, which puts the model's fair value 1.4% below the price. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
- The latest balance sheet shows far less debt than the quarter before, with no matching repayment.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Ciena Corporation.
What price range does the model give CIEN?
The calibrated range for CIEN over 63 trading days is $332.44 to $520.48. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CIEN's own options imply (63% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $298.34 to $495.84. In 60% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CIEN score on business quality?
Ciena's overall quality score is 82 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 86 | 90.2%ROIC | 20.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 83 | 1.10xFCF / net income | 0.95x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 83 | 18.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 14.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 57 | 1.1%Net buybacks / market value | 0.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 92 | -2.27xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.06x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 86 | 2.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.8 pts |
How does CIEN compare with similar companies?
The companies in communication equipment closest to Ciena in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. | $1,085.42 | $866.84 | -20.1% | Data under review |
| MSI Motorola Solutions, Inc. | $447.41 | $451.47 | +0.9% | Fairly valued |
| ZBRA Zebra Technologies Corporation | $375.86 | $422.73 | +12.5% | Fairly valued |
| VSAT Viasat, Inc. | $72.00 | $100.29 | +39.3% | Low evidence grade |
| VIAV Viavi Solutions Inc. | $47.10 | $39.07 | -17.0% | Overvalued |
| CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. | $112.20 | $128.80 | +14.8% | Fairly valued |
| BDC Belden Inc. | $112.46 | $162.76 | +44.7% | Undervalued |
| DGII Digi International Inc. | $75.61 | $77.22 | +2.1% | Fairly valued |
All communication equipment stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does CIEN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Ciena's next earnings report is scheduled for 10 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 9.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. CIEN's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 18.2% over one month.
How CIEN moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 13.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 3 Sep 2026 | -9.4% |
| 4 Jun 2026 | -21.3% |
| 5 Mar 2026 | -14.4% |
| 11 Dec 2025 | -1.5% |
| 4 Sep 2025 | +23.1% |
| 5 Jun 2025 | -13.3% |
| 11 Mar 2025 | +1.3% |
| 12 Dec 2024 | +22.6% |
Ciena at a glance
Ciena Corporation is a global technology company focused on telecommunications infrastructure.
- Market value
- $50.5B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Communication Equipment
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $8.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +34.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- 2.50
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Ciena on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CIEN was $374.92. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $385.68, a change of +2.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Ciena's valuation
Is Ciena stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts CIEN's fair value at $385.68 a share against a last close of $391.34, as of 26 Sep 2026. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
What is CIEN's fair value?
$385.68 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $298.34 to $495.84.
What price range does the model give CIEN?
$332.44 to $520.48 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Ciena report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 10 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CIEN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 13.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was +23.1% around the report of 4 Sep 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CIEN is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.