NYSE: BDC · Communication Equipment
Belden (BDC) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 1 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Belden (BDC) at $162.76 a share. The stock last closed at $112.46, which puts the model's fair value 44.7% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Belden Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 1 Oct 2026
Belden Inc. stands as a global leader in signal transmission solutions, serving a diverse customer base across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific. The company is in Technology, Communication Equipment.
Faircurve's model valued Belden Inc. at $162.76 a share on 1 Oct 2026. This is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $171.15, and the fair value moved -4.9%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $136.55 to $198.46, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High.
The overall quality score is 78 out of 100 against comparable companies. Profitability scores 100, growth quality scores 95, and stability scores 100. Earnings quality scores 36, capital discipline scores 56, and balance sheet scores 63. The model compares Belden Inc. with Digi International Inc. (DGII), Extreme Networks, Inc. (EXTR), Calix, Inc. (CALX), Viavi Solutions Inc. (VIAV), Arlo Technologies, Inc. (ARLO), Harmonic Inc. (HLIT), and Zebra Technologies Corporation (ZBRA). The stock moved around its last 8 earnings reports with a median size of 6.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 1 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give BDC?
The calibrated range for BDC over 63 trading days is $136.55 to $198.46. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 29% of the time over 63 trading days, and 71% ended below it; the typical move was +5.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $125.17 to $206.01. In 92% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does BDC score on business quality?
Belden's overall quality score is 78 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 12.9%ROIC | 4.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 36 | 0.87xFCF / net income | 1.34x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 95 | 10.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 56 | 3.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 63 | 2.14xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.26x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 0.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 4.2 pts |
How does BDC compare with similar companies?
The companies in communication equipment closest to Belden in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DGII Digi International Inc. | $75.61 | $77.22 | +2.1% | Fairly valued |
| EXTR Extreme Networks, Inc. | $23.12 | $24.60 | +6.4% | Fairly valued |
| CALX Calix, Inc. | $34.81 | $34.45 | -1.0% | Fairly valued |
| VIAV Viavi Solutions Inc. | $47.10 | $39.07 | -17.0% | Overvalued |
| VSAT Viasat, Inc. | $72.00 | $100.29 | +39.3% | Low evidence grade |
| ARLO Arlo Technologies, Inc. | $12.78 | $15.16 | +18.6% | Undervalued |
| HLIT Harmonic Inc. | $11.17 | $12.98 | +16.2% | Undervalued |
| ZBRA Zebra Technologies Corporation | $375.86 | $422.73 | +12.5% | Fairly valued |
All communication equipment stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does BDC report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Belden's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How BDC moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | +21.6% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | -10.5% |
| 12 Feb 2026 | +5.2% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | +2.1% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | -8.1% |
| 1 May 2025 | +11.7% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | -1.0% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | -2.1% |
Belden at a glance
Belden Inc. stands as a global leader in signal transmission solutions, serving a diverse customer base across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific.
- Market value
- $4.4B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Communication Equipment
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +24.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- 1.38
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Belden on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for BDC was $171.15. As of 1 Oct 2026 it is $162.76, a change of -4.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Belden's valuation
Is Belden stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, BDC reads as Undervalued as of 1 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $162.76 a share against a last close of $112.46, a gap of +44.7%.
What is BDC's fair value?
$162.76 a share as of 1 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $125.17 to $206.01.
What price range does the model give BDC?
$136.55 to $198.46 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Belden report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has BDC moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +21.6% around the report of 30 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for BDC is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.