NASDAQ: LITE ยท Communication Equipment
Lumentum Holdings (LITE) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Lumentum Holdings (LITE) at $866.84 a share. The stock last closed at $1,085.42, which puts the model's fair value 20.1% below the price. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
- The latest balance sheet shows far less debt than the quarter before, with no matching repayment.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Lumentum Holdings Inc.
What price range does the model give LITE?
The calibrated range for LITE over 63 trading days is $897.05 to $1,514.67. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that LITE's own options imply (74% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $591.37 to $1,255.82. In 43% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does LITE score on business quality?
Lumentum Holdings's overall quality score is 69 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 63 | 11.9%ROIC | 9.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 99 | 83.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 27.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 69 | 1.1%Net buybacks / market value | 0.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 40 | 0.05xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.80x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 86.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.6 pts |
How does LITE compare with similar companies?
The companies in communication equipment closest to Lumentum Holdings in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSI Motorola Solutions, Inc. | $447.41 | $451.47 | +0.9% | Fairly valued |
| CIEN Ciena Corporation | $391.34 | $385.68 | -1.4% | Data under review |
| ZBRA Zebra Technologies Corporation | $375.86 | $422.73 | +12.5% | Fairly valued |
| CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. | $112.20 | $128.80 | +14.8% | Fairly valued |
| VSAT Viasat, Inc. | $72.00 | $100.29 | +39.3% | Low evidence grade |
| VIAV Viavi Solutions Inc. | $47.10 | $39.07 | -17.0% | Overvalued |
| BDC Belden Inc. | $112.46 | $162.76 | +44.7% | Undervalued |
| DGII Digi International Inc. | $75.61 | $77.22 | +2.1% | Fairly valued |
All communication equipment stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does LITE report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Lumentum Holdings's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 10.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. LITE's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 21.3% over one month.
How LITE moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 11 Aug 2026 | +14.6% |
| 5 May 2026 | -3.3% |
| 3 Feb 2026 | +9.9% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | +16.6% |
| 12 Aug 2025 | +4.5% |
| 6 May 2025 | +4.9% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | -3.7% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | +16.5% |
Lumentum Holdings at a glance
Lumentum Holdings Inc., established in 2015 and headquartered in San Jose, California, is a global leader in optical and photonic product manufacturing. The company's reach extends across the Americas, Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
- Market value
- $73.3B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Communication Equipment
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $7.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +107.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 15
- Beta to the US market
- 3.09
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Lumentum Holdings on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for LITE was $865.14. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $866.84, a change of +0.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Lumentum Holdings's valuation
Is Lumentum Holdings stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts LITE's fair value at $866.84 a share against a last close of $1,085.42, as of 26 Sep 2026. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
What is LITE's fair value?
$866.84 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $591.37 to $1,255.82.
What price range does the model give LITE?
$897.05 to $1,514.67 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Lumentum Holdings report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has LITE moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +16.6% around the report of 4 Nov 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for LITE is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.