NYSE: CNM · Industrial Distribution
Core & Main (CNM) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 2 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values Core & Main (CNM) at $61.75 a share. The stock last closed at $46.95, which puts the model's fair value 31.5% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Core & Main, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 2 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $58.96 to $61.75 (+4.7%).
What the model makes of itThe price of $46.95 is 31.5% below it: Undervalued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 8 Dec 2026. Options expiring after the report price a move of about 12% either way. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give CNM?
The calibrated range for CNM over 63 trading days is $41.26 to $55.03. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CNM's own options imply (43% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $47.87 to $77.89. In 87% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 2 Nov 2026
Core & Main, Inc. (CNM) is a leading supplier of vital infrastructure products and services across the United States, including water, wastewater, storm drainage and fire protection systems.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of Core & Main at $61.75 a share on 2 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $58.96, so the model's fair value moved +4.7%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $41.82 to $58.53. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, across 6,661 past valuations. The model grades the evidence High. That grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Core & Main scores 62 out of 100 on quality against comparable companies, the model's composite of six factors. Earnings quality and capital discipline both score 85. Free cash flow to net income is 1.37x, against a peer median of 0.76x. Growth quality is the weakest factor, at 28, with trailing revenue growth of 2.8% against a peer median of 7.1%. The model compares it with Pool Corporation, MSC Industrial Direct, Watsco, WESCO International, Resideo Technologies and DXP Enterprises.
Written from the figures on this page for the 2 Nov 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does CNM report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Core & Main's next earnings report is scheduled for 8 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 11.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 42 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. CNM's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 12.5% over one month.
On 4 Nov 2026 CNM moved 8.4% in one session, against the 2.8% a day that options had priced: 3.0 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across CNM's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 8.3%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in CNM
How does CNM score on business quality?
Core & Main's overall quality score is 62 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 67 | 12.5%ROIC | 11.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 85 | 1.37xFCF / net income | 0.76x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 28 | 2.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 7.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 85 | 4.5%Net buybacks / market value | 0.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 49 | 2.53xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.26x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 62 | 0.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.4 pts |
How does CNM compare with similar companies?
The companies in industrial distribution closest to Core & Main in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POOL Pool Corporation | $216.66 | $203.28 | -6.2% | Fairly valued |
| MSM MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. | $110.95 | $125.85 | +13.4% | Fairly valued |
| AIT Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. | $280.90 | $297.48 | +5.9% | Data under review |
| WSO Watsco, Inc. | $311.14 | $289.79 | -6.9% | Fairly valued |
| WCC WESCO International, Inc. | $286.47 | $336.59 | +17.5% | Undervalued |
| DNOW Dnow Inc. | $13.72 | $14.84 | +8.2% | Low evidence grade |
| REZI Resideo Technologies, Inc. | $19.59 | $17.23 | -12.0% | Fairly valued |
| DXPE DXP Enterprises, Inc. | $132.87 | $181.24 | +36.4% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for CNM, the peer-implied price, is $87.91 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All industrial distribution stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Core & Main at a glance
Core & Main, Inc. (CNM) is a leading supplier of vital infrastructure products and services across the United States. The company specializes in providing comprehensive solutions for water, wastewater, storm drainage, and fire protection systems.
- Market value
- $8.2B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial Distribution
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $8.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +2.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 0.91
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. CNM was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Core & Main on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for CNM was $58.96. As of 2 Nov 2026 it is $61.75, a change of +4.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Core & Main's valuation
Is Core & Main stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CNM reads as Undervalued as of 2 Nov 2026. The model's fair value is $61.75 a share against a last close of $46.95, a gap of +31.5%.
What is CNM's fair value?
$61.75 a share as of 2 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $47.87 to $77.89.
What price range does the model give CNM?
$41.26 to $55.03 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Core & Main report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 8 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CNM moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 8.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was -27.1% around the report of 9 Sep 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CNM is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on CNM
The model holds no idea open on CNM today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on CNM with their outcomes. A free account is enough.