NYSE: MSM · Industrial Distribution
MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) at $125.85 a share. The stock last closed at $110.95, which puts the model's fair value 13.4% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $117.62 to $125.85 (+7.0%). The companies the model compares it with now trade on higher multiples: part of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $110.95 is 13.4% below it: Fairly valued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 6 Jan 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 10% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give MSM?
The calibrated range for MSM over 63 trading days is $100.04 to $126.00. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that MSM's own options imply (35% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $103.48 to $151.77. In 57% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (MSM) distributes industrial supplies, mainly metalworking, maintenance, repair and operations (MRO) products and services. It is classed under Industrials, in industrial distribution.
Faircurve's model puts the fair value at $125.85 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. That is up 7.0% from $117.62 on the 24 Oct 2026 run. The model gives this reason: "The companies the model compares it with now trade on higher multiples: part of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $105.51 to $130.48. It is built around the price implied by the stock's own options volatility. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence High, looking at the inputs, the comparable companies and the spread of outcomes. The grade does not say if the fair value is right.
The model scores MSC Industrial 55 out of 100 on quality against comparable companies. The balance sheet scores 74, with net debt to EBITDA at 1.12x against a peer median of 2.76x. Capital discipline scores 25, with net buybacks at 0.2% of market value against a peer median of 1.3%. Comparable companies are Pool Corporation (POOL), Core & Main, Inc. (CNM), Watsco, Inc. (WSO), Resideo Technologies, Inc. (REZI), WESCO International, Inc. (WCC) and DXP Enterprises, Inc. (DXPE).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does MSM report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
MSC Industrial Direct's next earnings report is scheduled for 6 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 6.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. MSM's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.1% over one month.
On 5 Nov 2026 MSM moved 4.4% in one session, against the 2.0% a day that options had priced: 2.2 times the implied size.
How MSM moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 22 Oct 2026 | -14.3% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | +3.2% |
| 1 Apr 2026 | -2.1% |
| 7 Jan 2026 | -1.2% |
| 23 Oct 2025 | +1.1% |
| 1 Jul 2025 | +5.4% |
| 3 Apr 2025 | -10.2% |
| 8 Jan 2025 | +0.1% |
How does MSM score on business quality?
MSC Industrial Direct's overall quality score is 55 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 60 | 12.8%ROIC | 9.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 50 | 1.01xFCF / net income | 0.91x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 71 | 6.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 25 | 0.2%Net buybacks / market value | 1.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 74 | 1.12xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.76x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 30 | 1.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.0 pts |
How does MSM compare with similar companies?
The companies in industrial distribution closest to MSC Industrial Direct in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POOL Pool Corporation | $216.66 | $203.28 | -6.2% | Fairly valued |
| CNM Core & Main, Inc. | $46.95 | $61.75 | +31.5% | Undervalued |
| AIT Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. | $280.90 | $297.48 | +5.9% | Data under review |
| WSO Watsco, Inc. | $311.14 | $289.79 | -6.9% | Fairly valued |
| DNOW Dnow Inc. | $13.72 | $14.84 | +8.2% | Low evidence grade |
| REZI Resideo Technologies, Inc. | $19.59 | $17.23 | -12.0% | Fairly valued |
| WCC WESCO International, Inc. | $286.47 | $336.59 | +17.5% | Undervalued |
| DXPE DXP Enterprises, Inc. | $132.87 | $181.24 | +36.4% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for MSM, the peer-implied price, is $134.20 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All industrial distribution stocks ranked by gap to fair value
MSC Industrial Direct at a glance
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc., along with its affiliated entities, specializes in the distribution of industrial supplies, primarily focusing on metalworking, maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) products and services.
- Market value
- $6.8B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial Distribution
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +8.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 0.85
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. MSM was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices MSC Industrial Direct on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for MSM was $117.62. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $125.85, a change of +7.0%. The companies the model compares it with now trade on higher multiples: part of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about MSC Industrial Direct's valuation
Is MSC Industrial Direct stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MSM reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $125.85 a share against a last close of $110.95, a gap of +13.4%.
What is MSM's fair value?
$125.85 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $103.48 to $151.77.
What price range does the model give MSM?
$100.04 to $126.00 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does MSC Industrial Direct report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 6 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MSM moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was -14.3% around the report of 22 Oct 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MSM is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on MSM
The model holds no idea open on MSM today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on MSM with their outcomes. A free account is enough.