NYSE: CVI · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
CVR Energy (CVI) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 2 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values CVR Energy (CVI) at $43.84 a share. The stock last closed at $54.83, which puts the model's fair value 20.0% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. CVR Energy, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 2 Oct 2026
CVR Energy, Inc. is a diversified company which operates primarily through its subsidiaries focusing on petroleum refining and the production of nitrogen fertilisers within the United States.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $43.84 a share on 2 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $42.49, so the fair value moved +3.2%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $36.78 to $53.45, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The company's overall quality score is 59 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares CVR Energy, Inc. with Par Pacific Holdings, Inc., PBF Energy Inc., HF Sinclair Corporation, Phillips 66, Valero Energy Corporation, and Marathon Petroleum Corporation. The median size of moves around the last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 7.5%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 2 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CVI?
The calibrated range for CVI over 63 trading days is $36.78 to $53.45. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 40% of the time over 63 trading days, and 58% ended above it; the typical move was −0.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $27.49 to $66.09. In 34% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CVI score on business quality?
CVR Energy's overall quality score is 59 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 38 | 5.5%ROIC | 9.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 85 | 5.01xFCF / net income | 1.50x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 72 | -5.9%Revenue growth, trailing | -6.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 44 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 1.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 39 | 1.43xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.29x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 75 | 2.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.8 pts |
How does CVI compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas refining & marketing closest to CVR Energy in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARR Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | $84.00 | $84.58 | +0.7% | Fairly valued |
| PBF PBF Energy Inc. | $80.78 | $109.99 | +36.2% | Undervalued |
| DINO HF Sinclair Corporation | $113.36 | $133.16 | +17.5% | Undervalued |
| PSX Phillips 66 | $264.58 | $245.90 | -7.1% | Fairly valued |
| VLO Valero Energy Corporation | $406.30 | $465.30 | +14.5% | Fairly valued |
| MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation | $422.33 | $465.47 | +10.2% | Fairly valued |
All oil & gas refining & marketing stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does CVI report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
CVR Energy's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 19.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How CVI moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | +12.9% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | +1.5% |
| 18 Feb 2026 | -4.1% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | -3.4% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | -8.0% |
| 28 Apr 2025 | +56.5% |
| 18 Feb 2025 | +7.0% |
| 28 Oct 2024 | -24.0% |
CVR Energy at a glance
CVR Energy, Inc., a diversified company, operates through its subsidiaries primarily focusing on petroleum refining and the production of nitrogen fertilizers within the United States.
- Market value
- $5.2B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $7.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +21.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.08
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices CVR Energy on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CVI was $42.49. As of 2 Oct 2026 it is $43.84, a change of +3.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about CVR Energy's valuation
Is CVR Energy stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CVI reads as Overvalued as of 2 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $43.84 a share against a last close of $54.83, a gap of -20.0%.
What is CVI's fair value?
$43.84 a share as of 2 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $27.49 to $66.09.
What price range does the model give CVI?
$36.78 to $53.45 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does CVR Energy report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CVI moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +56.5% around the report of 28 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CVI is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.