NYSE: DINO · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
HF Sinclair (DINO) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values HF Sinclair (DINO) at $140.56 a share. The stock last closed at $97.77, which puts the model's fair value 43.8% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. HF Sinclair Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $140.56, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $97.77 is 43.8% below it: Undervalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 17 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 17% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give DINO?
The calibrated range for DINO over 63 trading days is $82.04 to $121.28. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that DINO's own options imply (59% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $98.27 to $198.10. In 67% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) operates as a prominent independent energy enterprise. It is engaged in the production and commercialisation of a diverse array of petroleum products.
Faircurve's model puts the fair value at $140.56 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations, on 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $139.69, so the fair value moved +0.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $82.04 to $121.28, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply. The range is calibrated weekly against realised prices, using 6,661 past valuations refreshed on 31 Oct 2026. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium. It looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The company scores 82 out of 100 on the model's quality measure, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Three factors stand out. Profitability scores 100, with ROIC of 31.0% against a peer median of 8.8%. Balance sheet scores 100, with net debt to EBITDA of 0.00x against a peer median of 2.24x. Capital discipline scores 100, with net buybacks to market value of 4.4% against a peer median of 1.8%. The model compares the company with PBF Energy Inc. (PBF), CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI), Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR), Phillips 66 (PSX), Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) and Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
The Global Pulse
Faircurve's note after each US session, in your inbox. No account needed.
When does DINO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
HF Sinclair's next earnings report is scheduled for 17 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 10.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. DINO's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 17.0% over one month.
On 4 Nov 2026 DINO moved 7.8% in one session, against the 3.5% a day that options had priced: 2.2 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across DINO's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.4%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in DINO
How does DINO score on business quality?
HF Sinclair's overall quality score is 82 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 31.0%ROIC | 8.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 50 | 1.01xFCF / net income | 0.80x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 83 | -6.0%Revenue growth, trailing | -6.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 100 | 4.4%Net buybacks / market value | 1.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | 0.00xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.24x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 57 | 1.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.0 pts |
How does DINO compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas refining & marketing closest to HF Sinclair in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBF PBF Energy Inc. | $68.37 | $91.35 | +33.6% | Undervalued |
| CVI CVR Energy, Inc. | $39.84 | $49.49 | +24.2% | Undervalued |
| PARR Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | $68.69 | $83.75 | +21.9% | Undervalued |
| PSX Phillips 66 | $247.04 | $305.34 | +23.6% | Undervalued |
| VLO Valero Energy Corporation | $351.23 | $501.71 | +42.8% | Undervalued |
| MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation | $377.32 | $458.89 | +21.6% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for DINO, the peer-implied price, is $209.97 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All oil & gas refining & marketing stocks ranked by gap to fair value
HF Sinclair at a glance
HF Sinclair Corporation operates as a prominent independent energy enterprise, engaged in the production and commercialization of a diverse array of petroleum products.
- Market value
- $19.7B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $33.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +34.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- -0.13
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. DINO was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices HF Sinclair on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for DINO was $139.69. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $140.56, a change of +0.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about HF Sinclair's valuation
Is HF Sinclair stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, DINO reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $140.56 a share against a last close of $97.77, a gap of +43.8%.
What is DINO's fair value?
$140.56 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $98.27 to $198.10.
What price range does the model give DINO?
$82.04 to $121.28 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does HF Sinclair report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 17 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has DINO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was -12.7% around the report of 18 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for DINO is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on DINO
The model holds no idea open on DINO today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on DINO with their outcomes. A free account is enough.