NYSE: DUK · Regulated Electric
Duke Energy (DUK) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Duke Energy (DUK) at $116.18 a share. The stock last closed at $114.13, which puts the model's fair value 1.8% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Duke Energy Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Duke Energy Corporation is an energy provider operating across the United States with its various affiliates. Its operations are structured into three primary divisions: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure, Gas Utilities and Infrastructure, and Commercial.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $116.18 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $120.91, and the fair value moved -3.9%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $97.47 to $141.66, built from the fair value. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score against comparable companies is 58 out of 100. The model compares it with The Southern Company (SO), American Electric Power Company, Inc. (AEP), Dominion Energy, Inc. (D), NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE), Entergy Corporation (ETR), Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL), Exelon Corporation (EXC), and Consolidated Edison, Inc. (ED). Around the last 8 earnings reports, the median move, ignoring direction, was 1.2%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give DUK?
The calibrated range for DUK over 63 trading days is $97.47 to $141.66. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $80.39 to $155.41. In 52% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does DUK score on business quality?
Duke Energy's overall quality score is 58 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 52 | 5.4%ROIC | 5.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 73 | 0.29xFCF / net income | -0.82x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 44 | 6.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 10.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 63 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 39 | 5.59xNet debt / EBITDA | 5.51x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 87 | 2.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.2 pts |
How does DUK compare with similar companies?
The companies in regulated electric closest to Duke Energy in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SO The Southern Company | $83.72 | $79.63 | -4.9% | Fairly valued |
| AEP American Electric Power Company, Inc. | $119.57 | $123.21 | +3.0% | Fairly valued |
| D Dominion Energy, Inc. | $61.31 | $53.43 | -12.9% | Fairly valued |
| NEE NextEra Energy, Inc. | $76.83 | $69.24 | -9.9% | Fairly valued |
| ETR Entergy Corporation | $100.91 | $82.11 | -18.6% | Overvalued |
| XEL Xcel Energy Inc. | $71.40 | $64.09 | -10.2% | Fairly valued |
| EXC Exelon Corporation | $40.73 | $47.32 | +16.2% | Undervalued |
| ED Consolidated Edison, Inc. | $103.39 | $102.48 | -0.9% | Fairly valued |
When does DUK report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Duke Energy's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How DUK moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | -0.8% |
| 5 May 2026 | -1.5% |
| 10 Feb 2026 | +2.9% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | -0.1% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | +0.8% |
| 6 May 2025 | +1.5% |
| 13 Feb 2025 | -4.1% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | -0.4% |
Duke Energy at a glance
Duke Energy Corporation, an energy provider operating across the United States with its various affiliates, structures its operations into three primary divisions: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure, Gas Utilities and Infrastructure, and Commercial.
- Market value
- $88.4B
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Regulated Electric
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $34.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +4.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 13
- Beta to the US market
- -0.39
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Duke Energy on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for DUK was $120.91. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $116.18, a change of -3.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Duke Energy's valuation
Is Duke Energy stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, DUK reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $116.18 a share against a last close of $114.13, a gap of +1.8%.
What is DUK's fair value?
$116.18 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $80.39 to $155.41.
What price range does the model give DUK?
$97.47 to $141.66 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Duke Energy report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has DUK moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was -4.1% around the report of 13 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for DUK is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.