NASDAQ: EXC · Regulated Electric
Exelon (EXC) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Exelon (EXC) at $47.32 a share. The stock last closed at $40.73, which puts the model's fair value 16.2% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Exelon Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Exelon Corporation, a utility holding company established in 1999 and headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, operates across the United States and Canada, primarily focusing on the generation, delivery, and marketing of energy.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $47.32 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -3.4% from the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $48.99. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $39.70 to $57.70, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock, and calibrated weekly against realised prices. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026. The evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score is 61 out of 100 against comparable companies. The quality factors include Profitability 72, Earnings quality 70, Growth quality 39, Capital discipline 78, Balance sheet 49, and Stability 44. The model compares it with Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL), Consolidated Edison, Inc. (ED), Entergy Corporation (ETR), PG&E Corporation (PCG), WEC Energy Group, Inc. (WEC), Dominion Energy, Inc. (D), and Ameren Corporation (AEE). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports, measured from the close before each report to the close after it, ranged from -3.8% to +9.1%, with a median size, ignoring direction, of 1.2%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give EXC?
The calibrated range for EXC over 63 trading days is $39.70 to $57.70. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $32.40 to $63.67. In 64% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does EXC score on business quality?
Exelon's overall quality score is 61 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 72 | 5.4%ROIC | 5.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 70 | -0.69xFCF / net income | -1.06x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 39 | 5.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 9.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 78 | 2.1%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 49 | 5.63xNet debt / EBITDA | 5.69x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 44 | 2.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.5 pts |
How does EXC compare with similar companies?
The companies in regulated electric closest to Exelon in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XEL Xcel Energy Inc. | $71.40 | $64.09 | -10.2% | Fairly valued |
| ED Consolidated Edison, Inc. | $103.39 | $102.48 | -0.9% | Fairly valued |
| ETR Entergy Corporation | $100.91 | $82.11 | -18.6% | Overvalued |
| PEG Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated | $68.07 | $66.67 | -2.1% | Low evidence grade |
| PCG PG&E Corporation | $12.32 | $15.72 | +27.6% | Undervalued |
| WEC WEC Energy Group, Inc. | $101.59 | $97.19 | -4.3% | Fairly valued |
| D Dominion Energy, Inc. | $61.31 | $53.43 | -12.9% | Fairly valued |
| AEE Ameren Corporation | $99.94 | $100.00 | +0.1% | Fairly valued |
When does EXC report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Exelon's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How EXC moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | -2.6% |
| 6 May 2026 | -3.8% |
| 12 Feb 2026 | +9.1% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | -0.1% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | +0.9% |
| 1 May 2025 | -0.9% |
| 12 Feb 2025 | +1.4% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | -0.6% |
Exelon at a glance
Exelon Corporation, a utility holding company established in 1999 and headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, operates across the United States and Canada. The company primarily focuses on the generation, delivery, and marketing of energy.
- Market value
- $41.6B
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Regulated Electric
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $26.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +4.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- -0.37
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Exelon on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for EXC was $48.99. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $47.32, a change of -3.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Exelon's valuation
Is Exelon stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, EXC reads as Undervalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $47.32 a share against a last close of $40.73, a gap of +16.2%.
What is EXC's fair value?
$47.32 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $32.40 to $63.67.
What price range does the model give EXC?
$39.70 to $57.70 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Exelon report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has EXC moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +9.1% around the report of 12 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for EXC is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.