NASDAQ: AEP · Regulated Electric
American Electric Power (AEP) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values American Electric Power (AEP) at $123.21 a share. The stock last closed at $119.57, which puts the model's fair value 3.0% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. American Electric Power Company, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
American Electric Power Company, Inc. (AEP) operates as a prominent electric utility holding company, with its core business encompassing the generation, transmission, and delivery of electricity.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $123.21 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $125.79, so the fair value moved -2.1%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $103.37 to $150.23, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High.
The overall quality score for AEP is 79 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Dominion Energy, Inc. (D), Duke Energy Corporation (DUK), Entergy Corporation (ETR), Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL), The Southern Company (SO), Exelon Corporation (EXC), and Consolidated Edison, Inc. (ED). Around its last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved a median size of 2.6%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give AEP?
The calibrated range for AEP over 63 trading days is $103.37 to $150.23. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $89.20 to $160.49. In 54% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does AEP score on business quality?
American Electric Power's overall quality score is 79 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 6.7%ROIC | 5.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 91 | 2.85xFCF / net income | -0.90x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 58 | 9.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 9.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 75 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 15 | 6.18xNet debt / EBITDA | 5.53x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 1.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.0 pts |
How does AEP compare with similar companies?
The companies in regulated electric closest to American Electric Power in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D Dominion Energy, Inc. | $61.31 | $53.43 | -12.9% | Fairly valued |
| DUK Duke Energy Corporation | $114.13 | $116.18 | +1.8% | Fairly valued |
| ETR Entergy Corporation | $100.91 | $82.11 | -18.6% | Overvalued |
| XEL Xcel Energy Inc. | $71.40 | $64.09 | -10.2% | Fairly valued |
| SO The Southern Company | $83.72 | $79.63 | -4.9% | Fairly valued |
| EXC Exelon Corporation | $40.73 | $47.32 | +16.2% | Undervalued |
| ED Consolidated Edison, Inc. | $103.39 | $102.48 | -0.9% | Fairly valued |
| PEG Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated | $68.07 | $66.67 | -2.1% | Low evidence grade |
When does AEP report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
American Electric Power's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How AEP moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | -1.2% |
| 5 May 2026 | -1.6% |
| 12 Feb 2026 | +6.3% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | +5.9% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | +3.6% |
| 6 May 2025 | 0.0% |
| 13 Feb 2025 | -0.5% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | -4.1% |
American Electric Power at a glance
American Electric Power Company, Inc. (AEP) operates as a prominent electric utility holding company, with its core business encompassing the generation, transmission, and delivery of electricity.
- Market value
- $64.4B
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Regulated Electric
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $24.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +7.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- -0.11
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices American Electric Power on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for AEP was $125.79. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $123.21, a change of -2.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about American Electric Power's valuation
Is American Electric Power stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, AEP reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $123.21 a share against a last close of $119.57, a gap of +3.0%.
What is AEP's fair value?
$123.21 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $89.20 to $160.49.
What price range does the model give AEP?
$103.37 to $150.23 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does American Electric Power report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AEP moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +6.3% around the report of 12 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AEP is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.