NASDAQ: DXCM · Medical Devices
DexCom (DXCM) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values DexCom (DXCM) at $85.74 a share. The stock last closed at $85.36, which puts the model's fair value 0.4% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. DexCom, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
DexCom, Inc. is a medical technology company primarily focused on innovating, developing, and marketing continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems.
Faircurve's model on 3 Oct 2026 gave a fair value of $85.74 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -1.2% since the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $86.81. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $76.39 to $103.63, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices. The range held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, with 3,330 past valuations refreshed on 26 Sep 2026. The model assigned an Evidence grade of Medium.
The overall quality score for the business is 77 out of 100 against comparable companies. The quality factors include Profitability 91, Earnings quality 80, Growth quality 79, Capital discipline 57, Balance sheet 80, and Stability 43. The model compares DexCom, Inc. with GE HealthCare Technologies Inc., Edwards Lifesciences Corporation, Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc., Boston Scientific Corporation, Penumbra, Inc., Align Technology, Inc., Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc., and Stryker Corporation. The median move around the last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 8.1%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give DXCM?
The calibrated range for DXCM over 63 trading days is $76.39 to $103.63. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that DXCM's own options imply (43% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $61.73 to $117.35. In 51% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does DXCM score on business quality?
DexCom's overall quality score is 77 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 91 | 30.5%ROIC | 16.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 80 | 1.41xFCF / net income | 1.28x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 79 | 15.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 10.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 57 | 3.4%Net buybacks / market value | 1.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 80 | 0.19xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.63x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 43 | 3.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.6 pts |
How does DXCM compare with similar companies?
The companies in medical devices closest to DexCom in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEHC GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. | $64.29 | $70.99 | +10.4% | Fairly valued |
| EW Edwards Lifesciences Corporation | $85.15 | $74.77 | -12.2% | Overvalued |
| ZBH Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | $88.29 | $109.35 | +23.9% | Undervalued |
| BSX Boston Scientific Corporation | $42.60 | $46.67 | +9.6% | Fairly valued |
| PEN Penumbra, Inc. | $317.55 | $285.08 | -10.2% | Fairly valued |
| ALGN Align Technology, Inc. | $143.74 | $178.60 | +24.3% | Undervalued |
| BIO Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. | $369.14 | $330.73 | -10.4% | Fairly valued |
| SYK Stryker Corporation | $275.43 | $272.42 | -1.1% | Fairly valued |
When does DXCM report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
DexCom's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. DXCM's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 12.4% over one month.
How DXCM moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 8.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | +11.1% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | +6.6% |
| 12 Feb 2026 | +2.7% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | -14.6% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | -9.6% |
| 1 May 2025 | +14.3% |
| 13 Feb 2025 | +6.2% |
| 24 Oct 2024 | +1.3% |
DexCom at a glance
DexCom, Inc. is a medical technology company primarily focused on innovating, developing, and marketing continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems.
- Market value
- $32.7B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical Devices
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $5.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +12.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 15
- Beta to the US market
- 0.66
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices DexCom on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for DXCM was $86.81. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $85.74, a change of -1.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about DexCom's valuation
Is DexCom stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, DXCM reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $85.74 a share against a last close of $85.36, a gap of +0.4%.
What is DXCM's fair value?
$85.74 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $61.73 to $117.35.
What price range does the model give DXCM?
$76.39 to $103.63 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does DexCom report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has DXCM moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 8.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was -14.6% around the report of 30 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for DXCM is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.