NASDAQ: ECPG · Credit Services
Encore Capital Group (ECPG) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Encore Capital Group (ECPG) at $108.08 a share. The stock last closed at $95.92, which puts the model's fair value 12.7% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Encore Capital Group, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Encore Capital Group, Inc. operates as a specialized financial institution, offering global solutions for debt resolution and associated support services to individual consumers holding diverse financial assets.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $108.08 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was a +5.1% move from the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $102.88. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $90.68 to $131.78, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model graded the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict was shown.
The business had an overall quality score of 63 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compared it with The Western Union Company (WU), Sezzle Inc. (SEZL), and Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (BFH). The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports ranged from -21.9% to +23.8%, with a median size, ignoring direction, of 8.9%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ECPG?
The calibrated range for ECPG over 63 trading days is $90.68 to $131.78. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $0.00 to $298.20. In 52% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ECPG score on business quality?
Encore Capital Group's overall quality score is 63 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 79 | 9.6%ROIC | 5.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 50 | 0.43xFCF / net income | -1.29x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 74 | 33.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 10.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 88 | 5.3%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 13 | 6.60xNet debt / EBITDA | 5.95x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 43 | 11.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 18.8 pts |
How does ECPG compare with similar companies?
The companies in credit services closest to Encore Capital Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WU The Western Union Company | $6.00 | $7.84 | +30.7% | Undervalued |
| EZPW EZCORP, Inc. | $30.20 | $37.26 | +23.4% | Low evidence grade |
| PRG PROG Holdings, Inc. | $31.00 | $40.70 | +31.3% | Low evidence grade |
| SEZL Sezzle Inc. | $107.41 | $113.56 | +5.7% | Fairly valued |
| BFH Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. | $98.05 | $121.60 | +24.0% | Undervalued |
| ENVA Enova International, Inc. | $172.89 | $182.04 | +5.3% | Low evidence grade |
| SLM SLM Corporation | $22.75 | $45.78 | +101.3% | Gap wider than 60% |
| NAVI Navient Corporation | $9.19 | $19.27 | +109.7% | Gap wider than 60% |
When does ECPG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Encore Capital Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How ECPG moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 8.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | +2.4% |
| 6 May 2026 | -2.6% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | +10.2% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | +14.9% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | +7.6% |
| 7 May 2025 | +23.8% |
| 26 Feb 2025 | -21.9% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +4.9% |
Encore Capital Group at a glance
Encore Capital Group, Inc. operates as a specialized financial institution, offering global solutions for debt resolution and associated support services to individual consumers holding diverse financial assets.
- Market value
- $2.1B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Credit Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +8.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.66
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Encore Capital Group on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ECPG was $102.88. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $108.08, a change of +5.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Encore Capital Group's valuation
Is Encore Capital Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts ECPG's fair value at $108.08 a share against a last close of $95.92, as of 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is ECPG's fair value?
$108.08 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $0.00 to $298.20.
What price range does the model give ECPG?
$90.68 to $131.78 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Encore Capital Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ECPG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 8.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was +23.8% around the report of 7 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ECPG is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.