NYSE: PRG · Credit Services
PROG Holdings (PRG) fair value and price range
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values PROG Holdings (PRG) at $38.76 a share. The stock last closed at $31.00, which puts the model's fair value 25.0% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. PROG Holdings, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
PROG Holdings, Inc. functions as a multi-channel financial services firm, specializing in lease-to-own programs for individuals with limited credit access or those traditionally considered underserved.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $38.76 a share on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was a move of -4.8% from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $40.70. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days was $32.34 to $46.99, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The overall quality score for the business is 63 out of 100, a score against comparable companies. These include The Western Union Company (WU), PRA Group, Inc. (PRAA), Sezzle Inc. (SEZL), and Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (BFH). The stock's median move around its last 8 earnings reports was 11.4%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give PRG?
The calibrated range for PRG over 63 trading days is $32.34 to $46.99. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 50% of the time over 63 trading days, and 48% ended below it; the typical move was +3.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $19.48 to $66.47. In 61% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does PRG score on business quality?
PROG Holdings's overall quality score is 63 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 56 | 10.4%ROIC | 14.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 86 | 1.18xFCF / net income | 1.06x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 69 | -2.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 9.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 75 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 3.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 64 | 0.81xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.09x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 13 | 20.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 4.7 pts |
How does PRG compare with similar companies?
The companies in credit services closest to PROG Holdings in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAVI Navient Corporation | $9.19 | $19.71 | +114.5% | Gap wider than 60% |
| EZPW EZCORP, Inc. | $30.20 | $36.15 | +19.7% | Low evidence grade |
| WU The Western Union Company | $6.00 | $7.62 | +27.0% | Undervalued |
| WRLD World Acceptance Corporation | $174.44 | $160.62 | -7.9% | Low evidence grade |
| ECPG Encore Capital Group, Inc. | $95.92 | $105.72 | +10.2% | Low evidence grade |
| PRAA PRA Group, Inc. | $18.87 | $21.48 | +13.8% | Fairly valued |
| SEZL Sezzle Inc. | $107.41 | $109.97 | +2.4% | Fairly valued |
| BFH Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. | $98.05 | $122.98 | +25.4% | Undervalued |
When does PRG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
PROG Holdings's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How PRG moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 11.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | -4.7% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | +24.1% |
| 18 Feb 2026 | +19.3% |
| 22 Oct 2025 | -4.8% |
| 23 Jul 2025 | +14.1% |
| 23 Apr 2025 | +3.9% |
| 19 Feb 2025 | -31.6% |
| 23 Oct 2024 | -8.7% |
PROG Holdings at a glance
PROG Holdings, Inc. functions as a multi-channel financial services firm, specializing in lease-to-own programs for individuals with limited credit access or those traditionally considered underserved.
- Market value
- $1.2B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Credit Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +26.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 0.90
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices PROG Holdings on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for PRG was $40.70. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $38.76, a change of -4.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about PROG Holdings's valuation
Is PROG Holdings stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts PRG's fair value at $38.76 a share against a last close of $31.00, as of 3 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is PRG's fair value?
$38.76 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $19.48 to $66.47.
What price range does the model give PRG?
$32.34 to $46.99 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does PROG Holdings report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PRG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 11.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was -31.6% around the report of 19 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PRG is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.