NYSE: WU · Credit Services
Western Union (WU) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Western Union (WU) at $7.71 a share. The stock last closed at $7.02, which puts the model's fair value 9.8% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. The Western Union Company.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $8.08 to $7.71 (-4.6%). The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: part of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $7.02 is 9.8% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 19 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 17% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give WU?
The calibrated range for WU over 63 trading days is $5.87 to $8.74. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that WU's own options imply (60% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $5.26 to $10.65. In 69% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Western Union is a global financial services provider in Credit Services, specialising in fund transfers and payment solutions. Its two main segments are Consumer-to-Consumer and Business Solutions.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $7.71 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $8.08, so the fair value moved -4.6%. In the model's own words, the stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: part of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $5.87 to $8.74. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, across 6,661 past valuations. The model grades the evidence Medium, looking at input completeness, the number and agreement of comparable companies, and the width of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Western Union scores 73 out of 100 on the model's overall quality measure, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Its strongest factors are Profitability at 100, with ROIC of 22.8% against a peer median of 5.0%, and Stability at 93, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 1.4 pts against a peer median of 9.7 pts. Growth quality is lowest at 30, with trailing revenue growth of -4.0% against a peer median of 13.4%. The model compares the company with EZCORP, Inc. (EZPW), Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (BFH) and Sezzle Inc. (SEZL).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does WU report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Western Union's next earnings report is scheduled for 19 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 16.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 43 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. WU's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 17.3% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across WU's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.5%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in WU
How does WU score on business quality?
Western Union's overall quality score is 73 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 22.8%ROIC | 5.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 76 | 1.02xFCF / net income | 0.79x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 30 | -4.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 13.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 75 | 7.4%Net buybacks / market value | 2.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 47 | 1.60xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.92x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 93 | 1.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 9.7 pts |
How does WU compare with similar companies?
The companies in credit services closest to Western Union in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECPG Encore Capital Group, Inc. | $126.17 | $85.70 | -32.1% | Low evidence grade |
| EZPW EZCORP, Inc. | $28.72 | $33.57 | +16.9% | Undervalued |
| PRG PROG Holdings, Inc. | $38.86 | $43.04 | +10.8% | Low evidence grade |
| SLM SLM Corporation | $17.53 | $32.57 | +85.8% | Gap wider than 60% |
| BFH Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. | $102.57 | $127.90 | +24.7% | Undervalued |
| NAVI Navient Corporation | $8.82 | $17.27 | +95.8% | Gap wider than 60% |
| ENVA Enova International, Inc. | $174.28 | $179.43 | +3.0% | Low evidence grade |
| SEZL Sezzle Inc. | $155.00 | $128.78 | -16.9% | Overvalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for WU, the peer-implied price, is $16.21 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Western Union at a glance
Western Union operates as a global financial services provider, specializing in fund transfers and diverse payment solutions. The company's operations are divided into two main segments: Consumer-to-Consumer and Business Solutions.
- Market value
- $1.9B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Credit Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +0.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- 0.18
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 55.1% of the 1,060 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. WU was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Western Union on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for WU was $8.08. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $7.71, a change of -4.6%. The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: part of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Western Union's valuation
Is Western Union stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, WU reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $7.71 a share against a last close of $7.02, a gap of +9.8%.
What is WU's fair value?
$7.71 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $5.26 to $10.65.
What price range does the model give WU?
$5.87 to $8.74 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Western Union report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 19 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has WU moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was -21.4% around the report of 30 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for WU is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on WU
The model holds no idea open on WU today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on WU with their outcomes. A free account is enough.