NASDAQ: EZPW · Credit Services
EZCORP (EZPW) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values EZCORP (EZPW) at $33.57 a share. The stock last closed at $28.74, which puts the model's fair value 16.8% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. EZCORP, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $33.57, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $28.74 is 16.8% below it: Undervalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 18 Nov 2026. Options expiring after the report price a move of about 10% either way. On the model's Scorecard Leaders list since 30 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give EZPW?
The calibrated range for EZPW over 63 trading days is $24.13 to $35.63. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that EZPW's own options imply (59% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $21.43 to $49.67. In 63% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
EZCORP, Inc. (EZPW) is a financial services company. It operates mainly by offering collateralised loans, known as pawn loans, to individuals in the United States and several Latin American countries.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $33.57 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $33.27, so the fair value moved +0.9%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $24.13 to $35.63. It is built around the price implied by the stock's options volatility and calibrated weekly against 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium. The grade looks at input completeness, the number of comparable companies and how closely they agree, and the width of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Faircurve's model scores EZCORP at 71 out of 100 on overall quality against comparable companies. Stability stands out at 87, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 1.9 pts against a peer median of 9.6 pts. Capital discipline scores 75, with net buybacks at 0.5% of market value against a peer median of 0.2%. The balance sheet scores 50, with net debt to EBITDA at 1.81x against a peer median of 0.74x. The model compares EZCORP with The Western Union Company (WU), PRA Group, Inc. (PRAA) and Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (BFH).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does EZPW report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
EZCORP's next earnings report is scheduled for 18 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 10.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 15 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. EZPW's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 17.0% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across EZPW's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.3%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in EZPW
How does EZPW score on business quality?
EZCORP's overall quality score is 71 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 67 | 9.9%ROIC | 4.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 71 | 0.89xFCF / net income | -3.10x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 75 | 9.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 21.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 75 | 0.5%Net buybacks / market value | 0.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 50 | 1.81xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.74x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 87 | 1.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 9.6 pts |
How does EZPW compare with similar companies?
The companies in credit services closest to EZCORP in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WU The Western Union Company | $6.25 | $7.71 | +23.4% | Undervalued |
| PRG PROG Holdings, Inc. | $36.53 | $43.04 | +17.8% | Low evidence grade |
| ECPG Encore Capital Group, Inc. | $99.83 | $85.70 | -14.2% | Low evidence grade |
| NAVI Navient Corporation | $8.26 | $17.81 | +115.6% | Gap wider than 60% |
| SLM SLM Corporation | $17.93 | $32.57 | +81.7% | Gap wider than 60% |
| WRLD World Acceptance Corporation | $165.66 | $152.38 | -8.0% | Low evidence grade |
| PRAA PRA Group, Inc. | $19.88 | $22.13 | +11.3% | Fairly valued |
| BFH Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. | $106.26 | $127.90 | +20.4% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for EZPW, the peer-implied price, is $56.93 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
EZCORP at a glance
EZCORP, Inc. operates primarily by offering collateralized loans, commonly known as pawn loans, to individuals in both the United States and various Latin American countries.
- Market value
- $1.6B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Credit Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +31.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 1.39
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. EZPW was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices EZCORP on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for EZPW was $33.27. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $33.57, a change of +0.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about EZCORP's valuation
Is EZCORP stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, EZPW reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $33.57 a share against a last close of $28.74, a gap of +16.8%.
What is EZPW's fair value?
$33.57 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $21.43 to $49.67.
What price range does the model give EZPW?
$24.13 to $35.63 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does EZCORP report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 18 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has EZPW moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was +9.1% around the report of 30 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for EZPW is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on EZPW
The model has an idea open on EZPW under Scorecard Leaders since 30 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on EZPW with their outcomes. A free account is enough.