NYSE: EFX · Consulting Services
Equifax (EFX) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Equifax (EFX) at $167.03 a share. The stock last closed at $140.00, which puts the model's fair value 19.3% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Equifax Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Equifax Inc. operates as a global data and analytics company, delivering a range of information solutions and specialized human resources administrative process outsourcing services.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $167.03 a share for Equifax Inc. on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was a move of -1.6% from the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $169.82. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $140.13 to $203.66, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
The company's overall quality score is 60 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 27, with ROIC 8.7% against a peer median of 23.8%, and its balance sheet scores 27, with net debt / EBITDA 2.79x against a peer median of 1.03x. The model compares Equifax Inc. with Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation, FTI Consulting, Inc., C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc., MasTec, Inc., IDEX Corporation, FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc., WESCO International, Inc., and Nordson Corporation. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports ranged from -10.0% to +15.8%, with a median size of 6.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give EFX?
The calibrated range for EFX over 63 trading days is $140.13 to $203.66. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 50% of the time over 63 trading days, and 47% ended below it; the typical move was +4.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $123.63 to $219.11. In 63% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does EFX score on business quality?
Equifax's overall quality score is 60 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 27 | 8.7%ROIC | 23.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 93 | 1.60xFCF / net income | 1.10x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 76 | 6.9%Revenue growth, trailing | -0.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 65 | 7.8%Net buybacks / market value | 3.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 27 | 2.79xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.03x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 87 | 0.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.8 pts |
How does EFX compare with similar companies?
The companies in consulting services closest to Equifax in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAH Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation | $67.35 | $82.83 | +23.0% | Undervalued |
| FCN FTI Consulting, Inc. | $136.40 | $140.02 | +2.7% | Fairly valued |
| CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | $157.72 | $142.94 | -9.4% | Fairly valued |
| MTZ MasTec, Inc. | $215.93 | $233.00 | +7.9% | Fairly valued |
| IEX IDEX Corporation | $232.99 | $211.30 | -9.3% | Fairly valued |
| FDXF FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. | $112.89 | $94.45 | -16.3% | Overvalued |
| WCC WESCO International, Inc. | $381.73 | $381.50 | -0.1% | Fairly valued |
| NDSN Nordson Corporation | $333.54 | $304.09 | -8.8% | Fairly valued |
When does EFX report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Equifax's next earnings report is scheduled for 20 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How EFX moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 21 Jul 2026 | -5.3% |
| 21 Apr 2026 | -10.0% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | +9.1% |
| 21 Oct 2025 | -0.2% |
| 22 Jul 2025 | -5.3% |
| 22 Apr 2025 | +15.8% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | -8.1% |
| 16 Oct 2024 | -3.4% |
Equifax at a glance
Equifax Inc. operates as a global data and analytics company, delivering a range of information solutions and specialized human resources administrative process outsourcing services.
- Market value
- $17.4B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Consulting Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $7.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +11.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 16
- Beta to the US market
- 0.38
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Equifax on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for EFX was $169.82. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $167.03, a change of -1.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Equifax's valuation
Is Equifax stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, EFX reads as Undervalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $167.03 a share against a last close of $140.00, a gap of +19.3%.
What is EFX's fair value?
$167.03 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $123.63 to $219.11.
What price range does the model give EFX?
$140.13 to $203.66 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Equifax report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 20 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has EFX moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +15.8% around the report of 22 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for EFX is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.