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Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) at $96.87 a share. The stock last closed at $87.02, which puts the model's fair value 11.3% above the price. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
- A core financial input changed implausibly against last week.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $85.78 to $96.87 (+12.9%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $87.02 is 11.3% below it. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
What's nextNext report on 22 Jan 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 11% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give BAH?
The calibrated range for BAH over 63 trading days is $77.98 to $99.58. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that BAH's own options imply (37% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $56.90 to $151.17. In 56% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
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When does BAH report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Booz Allen Hamilton's next earnings report is scheduled for 22 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 10.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 43 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. BAH's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.7% over one month.
On 30 Oct 2026 BAH moved 5.1% in one session, against the 2.3% a day that options had priced: 2.2 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across BAH's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.5%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in BAH
How does BAH score on business quality?
Booz Allen Hamilton's overall quality score is 63 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 84 | 16.4%ROIC | 11.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 74 | 1.26xFCF / net income | 1.67x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 31 | -6.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 75 | 5.9%Net buybacks / market value | 2.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 36 | 3.55xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.20x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 53 | 1.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.8 pts |
How does BAH compare with similar companies?
The companies in consulting services closest to Booz Allen Hamilton in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EFX Equifax Inc. | $187.72 | $193.80 | +3.2% | Fairly valued |
| FCN FTI Consulting, Inc. | $193.65 | $173.86 | -10.2% | Fairly valued |
| PNR Pentair plc | $69.73 | $67.38 | -3.4% | Fairly valued |
| STRL Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. | $361.15 | $379.93 | +5.2% | Fairly valued |
| RRX Regal Rexnord Corporation | $179.93 | $170.53 | -5.2% | Fairly valued |
| AIT Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. | $305.15 | $297.48 | -2.5% | Data under review |
| R Ryder System, Inc. | $281.75 | $477.73 | +69.6% | Gap wider than 60% |
| GGG Graco Inc. | $69.16 | $75.63 | +9.4% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for BAH, the peer-implied price, is $125.14 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Booz Allen Hamilton at a glance
Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation (BAH) operates as a prominent consulting and technology firm, offering a diverse range of services to governmental bodies, commercial enterprises, and non-profit organizations both domestically and internationally.
- Market value
- $10.5B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Consulting Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $11.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +1.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- -0.01
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Booz Allen Hamilton on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for BAH was $85.78. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $96.87, a change of +12.9%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Booz Allen Hamilton's valuation
Is Booz Allen Hamilton stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts BAH's fair value at $96.87 a share against a last close of $87.02, as of 31 Oct 2026. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
What is BAH's fair value?
$96.87 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $56.90 to $151.17.
What price range does the model give BAH?
$77.98 to $99.58 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Booz Allen Hamilton report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 22 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has BAH moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was -13.7% around the report of 24 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for BAH is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.