NYSE: XPO · Trucking
XPO Logistics (XPO) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values XPO Logistics (XPO) at $168.78 a share. The stock last closed at $191.15, which puts the model's fair value 11.7% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. XPO Logistics, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $170.84 to $168.78 (-1.2%). The model shifted weight between the company's own multiple and its peers': most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $191.15 is 11.7% above it: Fairly valued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 4 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 11% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give XPO?
The calibrated range for XPO over 63 trading days is $170.06 to $220.68. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that XPO's own options imply (39% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $129.02 to $215.98. In 34% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
XPO Logistics, Inc. is a prominent provider of freight shipping solutions. It operates extensively across the United States, wider North America, various European nations including France and the United Kingdom, and globally.
The model's fair value is $168.78 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations in Faircurve's model, on 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $170.84, so the fair value moved -1.2%. In the model's own words, "The model shifted weight between the company's own multiple and its peers': most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $170.06 to $220.68. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High.
XPO scores 56 out of 100 on quality, the model's composite of six factors, against comparable companies. Profitability is the highest factor at 80, with ROIC of 12.3% against a peer median of 8.0%. The balance sheet scores 27, with net debt to EBITDA of 2.59x against a peer median of 1.51x, and stability scores 25. The model compares XPO with Old Dominion Freight Line, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, Saia, Schneider National, RXO, ArcBest, Werner Enterprises and Marten Transport.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does XPO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
XPO Logistics's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 6.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 15 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. XPO's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 11.4% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across XPO's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 8.6%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in XPO
How does XPO score on business quality?
XPO Logistics's overall quality score is 56 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 80 | 12.3%ROIC | 8.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 44 | 1.31xFCF / net income | 1.55x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 68 | 1.1%Revenue growth, trailing | -0.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 46 | 1.4%Net buybacks / market value | 2.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 27 | 2.59xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.51x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 25 | 1.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.2 pts |
How does XPO compare with similar companies?
The companies in trucking closest to XPO Logistics in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | $177.68 | $160.73 | -9.5% | Fairly valued |
| KNX Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | $62.81 | $69.49 | +10.6% | Fairly valued |
| SAIA Saia, Inc. | $353.18 | $351.55 | -0.5% | Fairly valued |
| SNDR Schneider National, Inc. | $29.55 | $36.01 | +21.9% | Undervalued |
| RXO RXO, Inc. | $28.24 | $21.20 | -24.9% | Overvalued |
| ARCB ArcBest Corp | $134.48 | $127.79 | -5.0% | Fairly valued |
| WERN Werner Enterprises, Inc. | $28.61 | $32.43 | +13.4% | Fairly valued |
| MRTN Marten Transport, Ltd. | $12.05 | $13.00 | +7.9% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for XPO, the peer-implied price, is $136.62 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
XPO Logistics at a glance
XPO Logistics, Inc. is a prominent provider of freight shipping solutions, operating extensively across the United States, wider North America, various European nations including France and the United Kingdom, and globally.
- Market value
- $22.2B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Trucking
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $9.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +11.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 15
- Beta to the US market
- 1.01
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. XPO was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices XPO Logistics on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for XPO was $170.84. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $168.78, a change of -1.2%. The model shifted weight between the company's own multiple and its peers': most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about XPO Logistics's valuation
Is XPO Logistics stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, XPO reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $168.78 a share against a last close of $191.15, a gap of -11.7%.
What is XPO's fair value?
$168.78 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $129.02 to $215.98.
What price range does the model give XPO?
$170.06 to $220.68 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does XPO Logistics report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has XPO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 8.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +15.3% around the report of 30 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for XPO is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on XPO
The model holds no idea open on XPO today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on XPO with their outcomes. A free account is enough.