NYSE: FDXF · Integrated Freight & Logistics
FedEx Freight (FDXF) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 7 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values FedEx Freight (FDXF) at $90.77 a share. The stock last closed at $123.56, which puts the model's fair value 26.5% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 6 Nov 2026. FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the price chart, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 7 Nov 2026 held the fair value at $90.77, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $123.56 is 26.5% above it: Overvalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 2 Dec 2026. The next weekly run is on Saturday 14 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give FDXF?
The calibrated range for FDXF over 63 trading days is $72.96 to $108.14. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 11,845 past valuations, refreshed 7 Nov 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 34% of the time over 63 trading days, and 65% ended above it; the typical move was −4.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $60.43 to $130.44. In 23% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
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When does FDXF report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
FedEx Freight's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Around its last 3 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across FDXF's last 3 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.1%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in FDXF
How does FDXF score on business quality?
FedEx Freight's overall quality score is 28 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 42 | 6.0%ROIC | 7.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 0 | -0.45xFCF / net income | 1.58x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 46 | -1.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 0.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 38 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 1.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 27 | 6.50xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.74x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 4.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.2 pts |
How does FDXF compare with similar companies?
The companies in integrated freight & logistics closest to FedEx Freight in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | $217.55 | $235.55 | +8.3% | Fairly valued |
| CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | $125.33 | $113.44 | -9.5% | Fairly valued |
| EXPD Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. | $184.61 | $184.44 | -0.1% | Fairly valued |
| GXO GXO Logistics, Inc. | $55.18 | $50.87 | -7.8% | Fairly valued |
| LSTR Landstar System, Inc. | $143.34 | $134.96 | -5.8% | Fairly valued |
| FDX FedEx Corporation | $308.14 | $343.13 | +11.4% | Fairly valued |
| UPS United Parcel Service, Inc. | $108.30 | $124.19 | +14.7% | Fairly valued |
| PBI Pitney Bowes Inc. | $15.55 | $17.41 | +12.0% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for FDXF, the peer-implied price, is $28.40 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All integrated freight & logistics stocks ranked by gap to fair value
FedEx Freight at a glance
FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. specializes in transporting less-than-truckload (LTL) cargo across the United States, Canada, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
- Market value
- $18.5B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Integrated Freight & Logistics
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $9.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +3.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- First valued by Faircurve
- 13 Jun 2026
At the close of 6 Nov 2026, 53.0% of the 1,067 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. FDXF was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices FedEx Freight on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for FDXF was $91.03. As of 7 Nov 2026 it is $90.77, a change of -0.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about FedEx Freight's valuation
Is FedEx Freight stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, FDXF reads as Overvalued as of 7 Nov 2026. The model's fair value is $90.77 a share against a last close of $123.56, a gap of -26.5%.
What is FDXF's fair value?
$90.77 a share as of 7 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $60.43 to $130.44.
What price range does the model give FDXF?
$72.96 to $108.14 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 11,845 past valuations, refreshed 7 Nov 2026.
When does FedEx Freight report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has FDXF moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 3 reports the median two session move was 4.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was +16.3% around the report of 29 Oct 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for FDXF is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on FDXF
The model holds no idea open on FDXF today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on FDXF with their outcomes. A free account is enough.