NYSE: ETN · Electrical Equipment & Parts
Eaton (ETN) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 30 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Eaton (ETN) at $405.44 a share. The stock last closed at $436.11, which puts the model's fair value 7.0% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Eaton Corporation plc.
Faircurve Insights · 30 Sep 2026
Eaton Corporation plc is a power management company, which provides energy-efficient solutions for electrical, hydraulic, and mechanical power. It operates through segments including Electrical Americas and Electrical Global.
On 30 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $405.44 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -1.6% since the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $411.83. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $394.25 to $520.26, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade for this valuation was High.
The business had an overall quality score of 56 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its quality scores included Profitability 22, Earnings quality 83, Growth quality 86, Capital discipline 50, Balance sheet 22, and Stability 83. Faircurve's model compares it with Vertiv Holdings Co, Bloom Energy Corporation, AMETEK, Inc., nVent Electric plc, Hubbell Incorporated, Acuity Brands, Inc., Powell Industries, Inc., and EnerSys. The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports had a median size, ignoring direction, of 1.9%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 30 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ETN?
The calibrated range for ETN over 63 trading days is $394.25 to $520.26. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ETN's own options imply (39% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $325.30 to $499.29. In 40% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ETN score on business quality?
Eaton's overall quality score is 56 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 22 | 10.2%ROIC | 22.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 83 | 1.18xFCF / net income | 1.01x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 86 | 10.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 2.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 50 | 0.8%Net buybacks / market value | 2.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 22 | 3.23xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.01x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 83 | 0.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.5 pts |
How does ETN compare with similar companies?
The companies in electrical equipment & parts closest to Eaton in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRT Vertiv Holdings Co | $252.18 | $265.76 | +5.4% | Fairly valued |
| BE Bloom Energy Corporation | $289.15 | $250.75 | -13.3% | Fairly valued |
| AME AMETEK, Inc. | $251.93 | $248.45 | -1.4% | Fairly valued |
| NVT nVent Electric plc | $169.56 | $153.23 | -9.6% | Fairly valued |
| HUBB Hubbell Incorporated | $475.52 | $405.83 | -14.7% | Fairly valued |
| AYI Acuity Brands, Inc. | $308.76 | $398.33 | +29.0% | Undervalued |
| POWL Powell Industries, Inc. | $196.10 | $160.63 | -18.1% | Overvalued |
| ENS EnerSys | $196.30 | $230.26 | +17.3% | Undervalued |
All electrical equipment & parts stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does ETN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Eaton's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. ETN's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 11.3% over one month.
How ETN moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | +13.3% |
| 5 May 2026 | -0.2% |
| 3 Feb 2026 | +1.5% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | -0.3% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | -6.9% |
| 2 May 2025 | -1.0% |
| 31 Jan 2025 | -3.6% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | -2.3% |
Eaton at a glance
Eaton Corp. Plc is a power management company, which provides energy-efficient solutions for electrical, hydraulic, and mechanical power. It operates through the following segments: Electrical Americas and Electrical Global; Aerospace, Vehicle, and eMobility.
- Market value
- $170.8B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Electrical Equipment & Parts
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $35.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +19.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 16
- Beta to the US market
- 1.86
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Eaton on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ETN was $411.83. As of 30 Sep 2026 it is $405.44, a change of -1.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Eaton's valuation
Is Eaton stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ETN reads as Fairly valued as of 30 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $405.44 a share against a last close of $436.11, a gap of -7.0%.
What is ETN's fair value?
$405.44 a share as of 30 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $325.30 to $499.29.
What price range does the model give ETN?
$394.25 to $520.26 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Eaton report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ETN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was +13.3% around the report of 31 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ETN is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.