NYSE: GGG · Industrial Machinery
Graco (GGG) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Graco (GGG) at $75.63 a share. The stock last closed at $69.16, which puts the model's fair value 9.4% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Graco Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $75.63, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $69.16 is 9.4% below it: Fairly valued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 25 Jan 2027. On the model's Quality Rebound list since 22 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give GGG?
The calibrated range for GGG over 63 trading days is $61.26 to $90.34. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $62.96 to $89.89. In 70% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Graco Inc. (GGG) is an industrial machinery company based in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Established in 1926, it specialises globally in the engineering, production and distribution of sophisticated systems and apparatus.
Faircurve's model gives Graco a fair value of $75.63 a share on 31 Oct 2026. This is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $75.19, so the fair value moved +0.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $61.26 to $90.34. It is built from the fair value, as there is no live options data for the stock, and it is calibrated weekly against realised prices. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence High. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Graco scores 73 out of 100 on the model's overall quality score, a composite of six factors measured against comparable companies. Profitability stands out at 96, with ROIC of 20.2% against a peer median of 13.3%. The balance sheet scores 81, with net debt to EBITDA of 0.03x against a peer median of 1.43x. Growth quality scores 69, with trailing revenue growth of 5.8% against a peer median of 5.4%. The model compares Graco with Pentair plc, Regal Rexnord Corporation, Crane Company, Watts Water Technologies, Inc., Flowserve Corporation, Generac Holdings Inc., Lennox International Inc. and Donaldson Company, Inc.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does GGG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Graco's next earnings report is scheduled for 25 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across GGG's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.2%.
How does GGG score on business quality?
Graco's overall quality score is 73 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 96 | 20.2%ROIC | 13.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 55 | 1.14xFCF / net income | 1.16x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 69 | 5.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 55 | 4.9%Net buybacks / market value | 1.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 81 | 0.03xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.43x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 55 | 1.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.3 pts |
How does GGG compare with similar companies?
The companies in industrial machinery closest to Graco in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PNR Pentair plc | $69.73 | $67.38 | -3.4% | Fairly valued |
| RRX Regal Rexnord Corporation | $179.93 | $170.53 | -5.2% | Fairly valued |
| CR Crane Company | $206.70 | $160.97 | -22.1% | Overvalued |
| WTS Watts Water Technologies, Inc. | $360.33 | $317.98 | -11.8% | Fairly valued |
| FLS Flowserve Corporation | $81.03 | $79.46 | -1.9% | Fairly valued |
| GNRC Generac Holdings Inc. | $209.28 | $212.74 | +1.7% | Fairly valued |
| LII Lennox International Inc. | $346.49 | $359.33 | +3.7% | Fairly valued |
| DCI Donaldson Company, Inc. | $85.90 | $86.52 | +0.7% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for GGG, the peer-implied price, is $88.23 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Graco at a glance
Graco Inc., a Minneapolis, Minnesota-based company established in 1926, specializes globally in the engineering, production, and distribution of sophisticated systems and apparatus.
- Market value
- $10.8B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial Machinery
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +4.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 0.62
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. GGG was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Graco on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for GGG was $75.19. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $75.63, a change of +0.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Graco's valuation
Is Graco stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, GGG reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $75.63 a share against a last close of $69.16, a gap of +9.4%.
What is GGG's fair value?
$75.63 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $62.96 to $89.89.
What price range does the model give GGG?
$61.26 to $90.34 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Graco report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 25 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has GGG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was -14.6% around the report of 21 Oct 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for GGG is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on GGG
The model has an idea open on GGG under Quality Rebound since 22 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on GGG with their outcomes. A free account is enough.