NYSE: RRX ยท Industrial Machinery
Regal Rexnord (RRX) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 21 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Regal Rexnord (RRX) at $177.52 a share. The stock last closed at $150.73, which puts the model's fair value 17.8% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 21 Sep 2026. Regal Rexnord Corporation.
What price range does the model give RRX?
The calibrated range for RRX over 63 trading days is $133.07 to $190.71. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that RRX's own options imply (51% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $127.88 to $237.57. In 68% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does RRX score on business quality?
Regal Rexnord's overall quality score is 28 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 5 | 5.2%ROIC | 14.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 54 | 1.44xFCF / net income | 1.27x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 29 | -1.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 48 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 1.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 9 | 3.60xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.43x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 38 | 1.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.6 pts |
How does RRX compare with similar companies?
The companies in industrial machinery closest to Regal Rexnord in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCI Donaldson Company, Inc. | $86.07 | $80.88 | -6.0% | Fairly valued |
| FLS Flowserve Corporation | $74.67 | $74.77 | +0.1% | Fairly valued |
| PNR Pentair plc | $55.78 | $63.23 | +13.4% | Fairly valued |
| CR Crane Company | $198.96 | $157.77 | -20.7% | Overvalued |
| WTS Watts Water Technologies, Inc. | $350.62 | $315.76 | -9.9% | Fairly valued |
| GNRC Generac Holdings Inc. | $204.96 | $211.89 | +3.4% | Fairly valued |
| AOS A. O. Smith Corporation | $56.96 | $68.40 | +20.1% | Undervalued |
| GGG Graco Inc. | $76.59 | $80.96 | +5.7% | Fairly valued |
When does RRX report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Regal Rexnord's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 21 Sep 2026 imply a move of about 10.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 24 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. RRX's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 14.7% over one month.
How RRX moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | -18.6% |
| 6 May 2026 | -7.1% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | +16.8% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | +0.2% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | -1.3% |
| 5 May 2025 | +30.3% |
| 5 Feb 2025 | -7.8% |
| 4 Nov 2024 | -0.6% |
Regal Rexnord at a glance
Regal Rexnord Corporation, formerly known as Regal Beloit Corporation, is a global enterprise that designs, manufactures, and distributes a comprehensive range of industrial products.
- Market value
- $9.9B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial Machinery
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $6.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +4.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 2.08
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Regal Rexnord on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 12 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for RRX was $192.13. As of 21 Sep 2026 it is $177.52, a change of -7.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Regal Rexnord's valuation
Is Regal Rexnord stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, RRX reads as Undervalued as of 21 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $177.52 a share against a last close of $150.73, a gap of +17.8%.
What is RRX's fair value?
$177.52 a share as of 21 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $127.88 to $237.57.
What price range does the model give RRX?
$133.07 to $190.71 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026.
When does Regal Rexnord report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has RRX moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +30.3% around the report of 5 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
Model confidence for RRX is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.