NYSE: LII · Industrial Machinery
Lennox International (LII) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Lennox International (LII) at $359.33 a share. The stock last closed at $348.79, which puts the model's fair value 3.0% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Lennox International Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $388.54 to $359.33 (-7.5%). Analysts cut their next-twelve-month EBITDA estimates: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $348.79 is 3.0% below it: Fairly valued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 27 Jan 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 12% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give LII?
The calibrated range for LII over 63 trading days is $306.78 to $408.35. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that LII's own options imply (43% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $274.44 to $460.91. In 55% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Lennox International Inc. (LII) is a global manufacturer and distributor specializing in heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC), and refrigeration solutions. It sits in Industrials, within Industrial Machinery.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $359.33 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. That is down from $388.54 on 24 Oct 2026, a move of -7.5%. In the model's own words, analysts cut their next-twelve-month EBITDA estimates: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $319.12 to $414.79. It is built around the price from the stock's own options-implied volatility and calibrated weekly against realised prices. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence High, on the completeness of inputs, the comparable companies and the width of outcomes. The grade does not say whether the fair value is right.
Faircurve's model gives Lennox International an overall quality score of 61 out of 100 against comparable companies. Earnings quality is 80, with FCF / net income at 1.11x against a peer median of 1.00x. Growth quality is 31, with trailing revenue growth at -2.7% against a peer median of 7.9%. The comparable companies are Generac Holdings, Watts Water Technologies, Crane Company, Graco, Pentair, Regal Rexnord, Flowserve and Donaldson.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does LII report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Lennox International's next earnings report is scheduled for 27 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 7.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. LII's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 12.5% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across LII's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.6%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in LII
How does LII score on business quality?
Lennox International's overall quality score is 61 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 72 | 24.0%ROIC | 10.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 80 | 1.11xFCF / net income | 1.00x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 31 | -2.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 7.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 42 | 4.0%Net buybacks / market value | 1.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 59 | 1.77xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.31x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 67 | 1.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.2 pts |
How does LII compare with similar companies?
The companies in industrial machinery closest to Lennox International in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GNRC Generac Holdings Inc. | $172.33 | $212.74 | +23.4% | Undervalued |
| WTS Watts Water Technologies, Inc. | $347.46 | $317.98 | -8.5% | Fairly valued |
| CR Crane Company | $197.79 | $160.97 | -18.6% | Overvalued |
| GGG Graco Inc. | $67.97 | $75.63 | +11.3% | Fairly valued |
| PNR Pentair plc | $69.77 | $67.38 | -3.4% | Fairly valued |
| RRX Regal Rexnord Corporation | $160.30 | $170.53 | +6.4% | Fairly valued |
| FLS Flowserve Corporation | $78.04 | $79.46 | +1.8% | Fairly valued |
| DCI Donaldson Company, Inc. | $83.27 | $86.52 | +3.9% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for LII, the peer-implied price, is $395.83 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Lennox International at a glance
Lennox International Inc. is a global manufacturer and distributor specializing in heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC), and refrigeration solutions.
- Market value
- $11.8B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial Machinery
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $5.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +5.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- 0.93
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. LII was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Lennox International on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for LII was $388.54. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $359.33, a change of -7.5%. Analysts cut their next-twelve-month EBITDA estimates: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Lennox International's valuation
Is Lennox International stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, LII reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $359.33 a share against a last close of $348.79, a gap of +3.0%.
What is LII's fair value?
$359.33 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $274.44 to $460.91.
What price range does the model give LII?
$306.78 to $408.35 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Lennox International report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 27 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has LII moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was -23.3% around the report of 29 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for LII is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on LII
The model holds no idea open on LII today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on LII with their outcomes. A free account is enough.