NASDAQ: HON · Conglomerates
Honeywell International (HON) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Honeywell International (HON) at $207.98 a share. The stock last closed at $213.99, which puts the model's fair value 2.8% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Honeywell International Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Honeywell International Inc. functions as a global leader in diversified technology and manufacturing. Its Aerospace division furnishes a comprehensive array of products and services for the aviation and space industries.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $207.98 a share for Honeywell International Inc. on 26 Sep 2026, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +3.4% since the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $201.11. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $195.29 to $251.08, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices, and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon across 3,330 past valuations. The evidence grade for this valuation is High.
Honeywell International Inc. scores 28 out of 100 for overall quality against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 0, earnings quality 10, growth quality 52, capital discipline 50, balance sheet 41, and stability 67. The model compares it with 3M Company (MMM), Valmont Industries, Inc. (VMI), and Otter Tail Corporation (OTTR). Around its last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved a median of 5.0% from the close before each report to the close after it.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give HON?
The calibrated range for HON over 63 trading days is $195.29 to $251.08. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that HON's own options imply (35% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $159.90 to $262.10. In 47% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does HON score on business quality?
Honeywell International's overall quality score is 28 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 0 | 8.1%ROIC | 22.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 10 | 0.50xFCF / net income | 0.88x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 52 | 7.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 2.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 50 | 1.8%Net buybacks / market value | 1.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 41 | 2.01xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.76x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 67 | 0.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.5 pts |
How does HON compare with similar companies?
The companies in conglomerates closest to Honeywell International in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MMM 3M Company | $161.89 | $212.10 | +31.0% | Undervalued |
| VMI Valmont Industries, Inc. | $478.74 | $487.55 | +1.8% | Fairly valued |
| GHC Graham Holdings Company | $1,149.61 | $1,193.95 | +3.9% | Low evidence grade |
| OTTR Otter Tail Corporation | $88.87 | $91.56 | +3.0% | Fairly valued |
| MATW Matthews International Corporation | $19.29 | $16.02 | -17.0% | Low evidence grade |
When does HON report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Honeywell International's next earnings report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. HON's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.2% over one month.
How HON moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2026 | +4.4% |
| 23 Apr 2026 | -3.1% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | +5.0% |
| 23 Oct 2025 | +4.6% |
| 24 Jul 2025 | -6.3% |
| 29 Apr 2025 | +4.9% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | -7.6% |
| 24 Oct 2024 | -5.6% |
Honeywell International at a glance
Honeywell International Inc. functions as a global leader in diversified technology and manufacturing. Its Aerospace division furnishes a comprehensive array of products and services for the aviation and space industries.
- Market value
- $67.4B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Conglomerates
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $20.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -46.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- 0.59
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Honeywell International on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for HON was $201.11. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $207.98, a change of +3.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Honeywell International's valuation
Is Honeywell International stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, HON reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $207.98 a share against a last close of $213.99, a gap of -2.8%.
What is HON's fair value?
$207.98 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $159.90 to $262.10.
What price range does the model give HON?
$195.29 to $251.08 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Honeywell International report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has HON moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was -7.6% around the report of 6 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for HON is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.