NYSE: ITW · Industrial Machinery
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Illinois Tool Works (ITW) at $286.79 a share. The stock last closed at $262.92, which puts the model's fair value 9.1% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Illinois Tool Works Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Illinois Tool Works Inc. is a global enterprise specializing in the production and distribution of a wide array of industrial goods and specialized equipment. It operates in Industrials and Industrial Machinery.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $286.79 a share on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -2.9% since the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $295.21. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $239.27 to $347.68, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is High.
The overall quality score for Illinois Tool Works Inc. is 68 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Cummins Inc., Emerson Electric Co., PACCAR Inc, Trane Technologies plc, Rockwell Automation, Inc., Parker-Hannifin Corporation, Carrier Global Corporation, and Ingersoll Rand Inc. The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports had a median size, ignoring direction, of 2.3%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ITW?
The calibrated range for ITW over 63 trading days is $239.27 to $347.68. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $233.69 to $346.54. In 64% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ITW score on business quality?
Illinois Tool Works's overall quality score is 68 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 28.8%ROIC | 15.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 43 | 0.91xFCF / net income | 1.00x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 34 | 0.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 67 | 2.5%Net buybacks / market value | 1.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 58 | 1.91xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.02x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 0.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.5 pts |
How does ITW compare with similar companies?
The companies in industrial machinery closest to Illinois Tool Works in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMI Cummins Inc. | $528.32 | $614.42 | +16.3% | Undervalued |
| EMR Emerson Electric Co. | $161.61 | $167.42 | +3.6% | Fairly valued |
| PCAR PACCAR Inc | $109.68 | $114.63 | +4.5% | Fairly valued |
| TT Trane Technologies plc | $463.91 | $455.07 | -1.9% | Fairly valued |
| ROK Rockwell Automation, Inc. | $454.35 | $418.42 | -7.9% | Fairly valued |
| PH Parker-Hannifin Corporation | $972.55 | $857.79 | -11.8% | Fairly valued |
| CARR Carrier Global Corporation | $55.12 | $57.16 | +3.7% | Fairly valued |
| IR Ingersoll Rand Inc. | $76.07 | $77.16 | +1.4% | Fairly valued |
When does ITW report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Illinois Tool Works's next earnings report is scheduled for 23 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
On 30 Sep 2026 ITW moved 3.7% in one session, against the 1.3% a day that options had priced: 2.7 times the implied size.
How ITW moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2026 | +2.7% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | -3.8% |
| 3 Feb 2026 | +9.3% |
| 24 Oct 2025 | -3.7% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | -1.4% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | -1.0% |
| 5 Feb 2025 | +0.2% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | +2.0% |
Illinois Tool Works at a glance
Illinois Tool Works Inc. is a global enterprise specializing in the production and distribution of a wide array of industrial goods and specialized equipment.
- Market value
- $75.6B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial Machinery
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $17.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +4.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- 0.41
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Illinois Tool Works on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ITW was $295.21. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $286.79, a change of -2.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Illinois Tool Works's valuation
Is Illinois Tool Works stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ITW reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $286.79 a share against a last close of $262.92, a gap of +9.1%.
What is ITW's fair value?
$286.79 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $233.69 to $346.54.
What price range does the model give ITW?
$239.27 to $347.68 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Illinois Tool Works report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 23 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ITW moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was +9.3% around the report of 3 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ITW is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.