NYSE: PH · Industrial Machinery
Parker-Hannifin (PH) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Parker-Hannifin (PH) at $853.13 a share. The stock last closed at $972.55, which puts the model's fair value 12.3% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Parker-Hannifin Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Parker-Hannifin Corporation is a global enterprise specializing in the production and distribution of advanced motion and control technologies and systems.
Faircurve's model valued Parker-Hannifin Corporation at $853.13 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $817.25, and the fair value moved +4.4%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $715.76 to $1,040.24, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade is High.
The business has an overall quality score of 57 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 75, with ROIC at 15.7% against a peer median of 11.5%. Earnings quality is 54, with FCF / net income at 1.07x against a peer median of 1.07x. Growth quality is 76, with trailing revenue growth at 8.3% against a peer median of 5.0%. Capital discipline scores 40, with net buybacks / market value at 1.0% against a peer median of 1.6%. The balance sheet scores 50, with net debt / EBITDA at 1.42x against a peer median of 1.27x. Stability scores 0, with EBITDA margin downside volatility over five years at 3.2 pts against a peer median of 1.1 pts. The model compares Parker-Hannifin with Trane Technologies plc, Emerson Electric Co., Illinois Tool Works Inc., Cummins Inc., PACCAR Inc, Rockwell Automation, Inc., and Carrier Global Corporation. The stock moved around its last 8 earnings reports with a median size of 5.3%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give PH?
The calibrated range for PH over 63 trading days is $715.76 to $1,040.24. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $658.63 to $1,095.06. In 32% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does PH score on business quality?
Parker-Hannifin's overall quality score is 57 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 75 | 15.7%ROIC | 11.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 54 | 1.07xFCF / net income | 1.07x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 76 | 8.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 40 | 1.0%Net buybacks / market value | 1.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 50 | 1.42xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.27x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 3.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.1 pts |
How does PH compare with similar companies?
The companies in industrial machinery closest to Parker-Hannifin in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TT Trane Technologies plc | $463.91 | $442.79 | -4.6% | Fairly valued |
| EMR Emerson Electric Co. | $161.61 | $166.37 | +2.9% | Fairly valued |
| ITW Illinois Tool Works Inc. | $262.92 | $295.21 | +12.3% | Fairly valued |
| CMI Cummins Inc. | $528.32 | $611.06 | +15.7% | Undervalued |
| GEV GE Vernova Inc. | $988.70 | $971.29 | -1.8% | Low evidence grade |
| PCAR PACCAR Inc | $109.68 | $116.13 | +5.9% | Fairly valued |
| ROK Rockwell Automation, Inc. | $454.35 | $401.06 | -11.7% | Fairly valued |
| CARR Carrier Global Corporation | $55.12 | $57.54 | +4.4% | Fairly valued |
When does PH report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Parker-Hannifin's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 3.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How PH moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | +7.7% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | -6.9% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | +2.1% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | +9.0% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | +4.4% |
| 1 May 2025 | +2.3% |
| 30 Jan 2025 | +6.2% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | +1.7% |
Parker-Hannifin at a glance
Parker-Hannifin Corporation is a global enterprise specializing in the production and distribution of advanced motion and control technologies and systems.
- Market value
- $123.4B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial Machinery
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $23.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +7.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- 0.78
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Parker-Hannifin on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for PH was $817.25. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $853.13, a change of +4.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Parker-Hannifin's valuation
Is Parker-Hannifin stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, PH reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $853.13 a share against a last close of $972.55, a gap of -12.3%.
What is PH's fair value?
$853.13 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $658.63 to $1,095.06.
What price range does the model give PH?
$715.76 to $1,040.24 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Parker-Hannifin report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PH moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was +9.0% around the report of 6 Nov 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PH is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.