NYSE: HSY · Food Confectioners
Hershey (HSY) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 1 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Hershey (HSY) at $150.88 a share. The stock last closed at $160.19, which puts the model's fair value 5.8% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. The Hershey Company.
Faircurve Insights · 1 Oct 2026
The Hershey Company, operating with its various subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes sweet confections and general household pantry items. Its market reach extends across the United States and globally.
Faircurve's model on 1 Oct 2026 found a fair value of $150.88 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $158.68, meaning the fair value moved -4.9%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days was $149.20 to $181.38, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade for this valuation was High.
The business has an overall quality score of 75 out of 100 against comparable companies, which include Mondelez International, Inc., Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc., and The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports ranged from -4.8% to +12.5%, with a median size of 3.4% ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 1 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give HSY?
The calibrated range for HSY over 63 trading days is $149.20 to $181.38. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that HSY's own options imply (28% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $123.16 to $181.84. In 42% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does HSY score on business quality?
Hershey's overall quality score is 75 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 90 | 17.7%ROIC | 7.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 83 | 1.71xFCF / net income | 0.94x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 55 | 4.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 1.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 85 | 1.4%Net buybacks / market value | 0.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 90 | 1.85xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.95x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 30 | 3.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.0 pts |
How does HSY compare with similar companies?
The companies in food confectioners closest to Hershey in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDLZ Mondelez International, Inc. | $58.19 | $49.89 | -14.3% | Fairly valued |
| TR Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | $37.99 | $35.43 | -6.7% | Fairly valued |
| EL The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. | $91.97 | $94.79 | +3.1% | Fairly valued |
| KVUE Kenvue Inc. | $17.20 | $18.51 | +7.6% | Fairly valued |
| KMB Kimberly-Clark Corporation | $94.36 | $109.80 | +16.4% | Undervalued |
| KR The Kroger Co. | $59.03 | $75.98 | +28.7% | Undervalued |
| SYY Sysco Corporation | $77.49 | $82.17 | +6.0% | Fairly valued |
| ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland Company | $80.45 | $84.15 | +4.6% | Fairly valued |
When does HSY report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Hershey's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. HSY's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 7.9% over one month.
How HSY moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | -4.8% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | -3.6% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | +12.5% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | -3.2% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | -0.1% |
| 1 May 2025 | -2.3% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | +6.2% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | -0.7% |
Hershey at a glance
The Hershey Company, operating with its various subsidiaries, serves as a key manufacturer and distributor of both sweet confections and general household pantry items. Its market reach extends across the United States and globally.
- Market value
- $33.7B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Food Confectioners
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $12.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +5.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 13
- Beta to the US market
- -0.26
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Hershey on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for HSY was $158.68. As of 1 Oct 2026 it is $150.88, a change of -4.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Hershey's valuation
Is Hershey stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, HSY reads as Fairly valued as of 1 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $150.88 a share against a last close of $160.19, a gap of -5.8%.
What is HSY's fair value?
$150.88 a share as of 1 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $123.16 to $181.84.
What price range does the model give HSY?
$149.20 to $181.38 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Hershey report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has HSY moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +12.5% around the report of 5 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for HSY is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.