Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. (TR) — Fair Value Analysis
Base-case fair value (P50): $34.40 · Current price: $41.28 · Verdict: Overvalued
The Verdict on TR
TOOTSIE ROLL INDUSTRIES INC (TR) is currently flagged as overvalued by our comprehensive Monte Carlo simulations. Trading at a current price of $41.28, TR significantly exceeds its median fair value (P50) of $34.40. This disparity indicates a substantial -16.7% gap, implying the stock is priced well above our model's central estimate for its intrinsic worth. This verdict, derived from evaluating thousands of potential future scenarios, suggests that the market may be assigning a premium to TR that its fundamental outlook, when simulated probabilistically, does not fully justify.
How TR stacks up against peers
Our analysis assigns TOOTSIE ROLL INDUSTRIES INC an "average" quality tier, reflecting its operational and financial health relative to its sector. While an average quality rating indicates solid, rather than exceptional, performance, it becomes particularly relevant when considering TR's current valuation. The stock's current price of $41.28, which is -16.7% higher than its median fair value of $34.40, suggests that the market is already baking in expectations that might be more aligned with a higher-quality company. For an "average" quality company like TR, such a significant premium warrants careful scrutiny from investors.
What this means for investors
Investors considering TOOTSIE ROLL INDUSTRIES INC (TR) should note the current overvalued assessment. With the stock trading at $41.28, markedly above its median fair value (P50) of $34.40, our Monte Carlo models point to a -16.7% potential downside based on the most probable outcome. While different scenarios exist, the current pricing implies a higher likelihood of a downward adjustment to align with its calculated intrinsic value. For a complete understanding of potential outcomes, including both bear and bull case scenarios, sign up for a free FairCurve account to access the full distribution and track TR's fair value as new fundamentals are released.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TR overvalued or undervalued right now?
TOOTSIE ROLL INDUSTRIES INC (TR) is currently considered overvalued. Its current price of $41.28 is higher than its median fair value (P50) of $34.40.
What is the bear case and bull case for TR?
The full Monte Carlo distribution, which includes specific bear (P10) and bull (P90) target prices, along with the probability of upside, is available with a free FairCurve account. We do not provide specific dollar values here.
How does FairCurve calculate TR's fair value?
FairCurve calculates TR's fair value using Monte Carlo simulations. This involves running thousands of forward scenarios to determine a probabilistic range of intrinsic values.
How can I track TR's fair value as it changes?
You can add TR to your free FairCurve watchlist to receive daily fair-value updates. FairCurve will also instantly re-value TR when new earnings or significant fundamental data are released.