NYSE: TR · Food Confectioners
Tootsie Roll Industries (TR) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 28 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Tootsie Roll Industries (TR) at $35.43 a share. The stock last closed at $37.99, which puts the model's fair value 6.7% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 28 Sep 2026
Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. is a long-standing confectionery business that produces and markets a wide variety of sweet treats. Its operations extend across the United States, Canada, Mexico, and numerous other countries worldwide.
Faircurve's model on 28 Sep 2026 gave a fair value of $35.43 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +1.1% from the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $35.05. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $29.73 to $43.20, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score is 63 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. with The Hershey Company, Mondelez International, Inc., Freshpet, Inc., National Beverage Corp., Cal-Maine Foods, Inc., and Central Garden & Pet Company. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports ranged from -5.1% to +12.3%, with a median size of 2.2%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 28 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give TR?
The calibrated range for TR over 63 trading days is $29.73 to $43.20. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $25.34 to $48.06. In 42% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does TR score on business quality?
Tootsie Roll Industries's overall quality score is 63 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 73 | 7.3%ROIC | 5.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 51 | 0.84xFCF / net income | 0.86x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 52 | 1.3%Revenue growth, trailing | -2.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 37 | 0.1%Net buybacks / market value | 0.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 94 | -0.31xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.53x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 71 | 1.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.2 pts |
How does TR compare with similar companies?
The companies in food confectioners closest to Tootsie Roll Industries in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSY The Hershey Company | $160.19 | $150.88 | -5.8% | Fairly valued |
| MDLZ Mondelez International, Inc. | $58.19 | $49.89 | -14.3% | Fairly valued |
| FRPT Freshpet, Inc. | $60.26 | $58.08 | -3.6% | Fairly valued |
| FIZZ National Beverage Corp. | $30.32 | $30.68 | +1.2% | Fairly valued |
| UNFI United Natural Foods, Inc. | $45.59 | $50.93 | +11.7% | Low evidence grade |
| CALM Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. | $66.67 | $66.38 | -0.4% | Fairly valued |
| CENT Central Garden & Pet Company | $39.81 | $42.12 | +5.8% | Fairly valued |
| POST Post Holdings, Inc. | $72.56 | $79.67 | +9.8% | Low evidence grade |
When does TR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Tootsie Roll Industries's next earnings report is scheduled for 21 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 10.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How TR moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2026 | -2.4% |
| 22 Apr 2026 | +1.6% |
| 27 Feb 2026 | +2.4% |
| 22 Oct 2025 | -5.1% |
| 24 Jul 2025 | +2.1% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | +12.3% |
| 12 Feb 2025 | -0.6% |
| 23 Oct 2024 | +0.7% |
Tootsie Roll Industries at a glance
Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. is a long-standing confectionery business that produces and markets a wide variety of sweet treats. Its operations extend across the United States, Canada, Mexico, and numerous other countries worldwide.
- Market value
- $2.9B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Food Confectioners
- Beta to the US market
- -0.33
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Tootsie Roll Industries on the value of the whole business against its operating profit, compared with where that ratio has sat before (EV/EBITDA against its own history), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for TR was $35.05. As of 28 Sep 2026 it is $35.43, a change of +1.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Tootsie Roll Industries's valuation
Is Tootsie Roll Industries stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, TR reads as Fairly valued as of 28 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $35.43 a share against a last close of $37.99, a gap of -6.7%.
What is TR's fair value?
$35.43 a share as of 28 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $25.34 to $48.06.
What price range does the model give TR?
$29.73 to $43.20 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Tootsie Roll Industries report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 21 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has TR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +12.3% around the report of 24 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for TR is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.