NYSE: KMT · Tools & Accessories
Kennametal (KMT) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Kennametal (KMT) at $49.37 a share. The stock last closed at $32.60, which puts the model's fair value 51.4% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Kennametal Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Kennametal Inc. is a global leader in developing and applying cutting-edge materials, including tungsten carbides, ceramics, and super-hard compounds.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $49.37 a share for Kennametal Inc. on 3 Oct 2026. This fair value is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations and moved +4.6% since the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $47.21. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $41.19 to $59.85, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock, and calibrated weekly against realised prices. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, over 4,809 past valuations refreshed 3 Oct 2026. The evidence grade is Medium.
The company's overall quality score is 56 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 87, with ROIC at 15.9% against a peer median of 5.3%. The earnings quality score is 0, with FCF / net income at -0.24x against a peer median of 1.51x. Growth quality scores 89, with trailing revenue growth at 19.8% against a peer median of 5.4%. The model compares Kennametal Inc. with The Timken Company (TKR), The Toro Company (TTC), Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK), Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (LECO), RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC), and Snap-on Incorporated (SNA). Around its last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved by a median size of 10.8%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give KMT?
The calibrated range for KMT over 63 trading days is $41.19 to $59.85. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 29% of the time over 63 trading days, and 71% ended below it; the typical move was +4.4%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $34.79 to $68.20. In 84% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does KMT score on business quality?
Kennametal's overall quality score is 56 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 87 | 15.9%ROIC | 5.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 0 | -0.24xFCF / net income | 1.51x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 89 | 19.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 36 | 0.4%Net buybacks / market value | 0.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 63 | 1.14xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.20x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 27 | 2.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.8 pts |
How does KMT compare with similar companies?
The companies in tools & accessories closest to Kennametal in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TKR The Timken Company | $122.44 | $124.75 | +1.9% | Fairly valued |
| TTC The Toro Company | $98.64 | $98.94 | +0.3% | Fairly valued |
| SWK Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. | $91.34 | $115.96 | +27.0% | Undervalued |
| LECO Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. | $274.38 | $292.15 | +6.5% | Fairly valued |
| RBC RBC Bearings Incorporated | $515.56 | $444.19 | -13.8% | Fairly valued |
| SNA Snap-on Incorporated | $368.90 | $372.07 | +0.9% | Fairly valued |
When does KMT report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Kennametal's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How KMT moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 10.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | -6.1% |
| 6 May 2026 | +11.2% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | +7.0% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | +17.9% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | -20.5% |
| 7 May 2025 | +15.2% |
| 5 Feb 2025 | -6.4% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +10.4% |
Kennametal at a glance
Kennametal Inc. is a global leader in developing and applying cutting-edge materials, including tungsten carbides, ceramics, and super-hard compounds.
- Market value
- $2.5B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Tools & Accessories
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +43.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 1.26
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Kennametal on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for KMT was $47.21. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $49.37, a change of +4.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Kennametal's valuation
Is Kennametal stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, KMT reads as Undervalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $49.37 a share against a last close of $32.60, a gap of +51.4%.
What is KMT's fair value?
$49.37 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $34.79 to $68.20.
What price range does the model give KMT?
$41.19 to $59.85 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Kennametal report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has KMT moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 10.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was -20.5% around the report of 6 Aug 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for KMT is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.