NASDAQ: LECO · Tools & Accessories
Lincoln Electric (LECO) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 1 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values Lincoln Electric (LECO) at $273.87 a share. The stock last closed at $272.13, which puts the model's fair value 0.6% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 1 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $266.89 to $273.87 (+2.6%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $272.13 is 0.6% below it: Fairly valued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 11 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 11% either way over the next month. On the model's Quality Momentum list since 27 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give LECO?
The calibrated range for LECO over 63 trading days is $242.52 to $313.51. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that LECO's own options imply (39% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $225.23 to $328.61. In 48% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 1 Nov 2026
Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. was established in Cleveland, Ohio, in 1895 and operates globally. It focuses on the innovation, production and sale of equipment and materials for welding, cutting and brazing.
The model's fair value is $273.87 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations, from the run on 1 Nov 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $266.89, so the fair value moved +2.6%. In the model's own words, the stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $259.63 to $318.46. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The business scores 61 out of 100 on the model's overall quality score. Profitability scores 92, with ROIC of 25.1% against a peer median of 17.0%. Stability scores 92, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 0.5 pts against a peer median of 1.1 pts. Earnings quality scores 13, with FCF to net income of 0.85x against a peer median of 1.16x. Capital discipline scores 25, with net buybacks at 1.0% of market value against a peer median of 1.6%. The model compares the company with RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC), Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK), Snap-on Incorporated (SNA), The Toro Company (TTC), The Timken Company (TKR) and Kennametal Inc. (KMT).
Written from the figures on this page for the 1 Nov 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does LECO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Lincoln Electric's next earnings report is scheduled for 11 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 7.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. LECO's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 11.2% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across LECO's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.4%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in LECO
How does LECO score on business quality?
Lincoln Electric's overall quality score is 61 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 92 | 25.1%ROIC | 17.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 13 | 0.85xFCF / net income | 1.16x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 66 | 5.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 25 | 1.0%Net buybacks / market value | 1.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 59 | 1.01xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.53x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 92 | 0.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.1 pts |
How does LECO compare with similar companies?
The companies in tools & accessories closest to Lincoln Electric in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC RBC Bearings Incorporated | $464.79 | $395.72 | -14.9% | Fairly valued |
| SWK Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. | $115.27 | $130.77 | +13.4% | Fairly valued |
| SNA Snap-on Incorporated | $366.44 | $384.26 | +4.9% | Fairly valued |
| TTC The Toro Company | $105.13 | $111.09 | +5.7% | Fairly valued |
| TKR The Timken Company | $99.94 | $126.38 | +26.5% | Undervalued |
| KMT Kennametal Inc. | $23.22 | $44.79 | +92.9% | Gap wider than 60% |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for LECO, the peer-implied price, is $270.74 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Lincoln Electric at a glance
Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc., an enterprise established in Cleveland, Ohio, in 1895, operates globally, focusing on the innovation, production, and sale of equipment and materials for welding, cutting, and brazing applications.
- Market value
- $15.0B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Tools & Accessories
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $5.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +13.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- 1.04
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. LECO was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Lincoln Electric on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for LECO was $266.89. As of 1 Nov 2026 it is $273.87, a change of +2.6%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Lincoln Electric's valuation
Is Lincoln Electric stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, LECO reads as Fairly valued as of 1 Nov 2026. The model's fair value is $273.87 a share against a last close of $272.13, a gap of +0.6%.
What is LECO's fair value?
$273.87 a share as of 1 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $225.23 to $328.61.
What price range does the model give LECO?
$242.52 to $313.51 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Lincoln Electric report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 11 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has LECO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +10.2% around the report of 13 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for LECO is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on LECO
The model has an idea open on LECO under Quality Momentum since 27 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on LECO with their outcomes. A free account is enough.