NASDAQ: LOPE · Education & Training Services
Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) at $151.24 a share. The stock last closed at $122.25, which puts the model's fair value 23.7% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Grand Canyon Education, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $164.31 to $151.24 (-8.0%). The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $122.25 is 23.7% below it: Undervalued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 17 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 11% either way over the next month. On the model's Scorecard Leaders list since 5 Nov 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give LOPE?
The calibrated range for LOPE over 63 trading days is $109.57 to $139.86. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that LOPE's own options imply (37% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $128.34 to $176.34. In 54% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (GCE) furnishes a broad spectrum of educational support services to higher education institutions throughout the United States.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $151.24 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $164.31, so the fair value moved -8.0%. In the model's own words, the stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $128.88 to $182.54. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, and calibrated weekly against 6,661 past valuations. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High. It reflects input completeness, agreement among comparable companies and the spread of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The business scores 74 out of 100 on the model's overall quality measure, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Profitability scores 100, with ROIC of 40.3% against a peer median of 15.3%. Capital discipline and the balance sheet each score 83. The model compares it with Covista Inc. (CVSA), Stride, Inc. (LRN), Laureate Education, Inc. (LAUR), Perdoceo Education Corporation (PRDO) and Strategic Education, Inc. (STRA).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does LOPE report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Grand Canyon Education's next earnings report is scheduled for 17 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 6.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. LOPE's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.6% over one month.
On 5 Nov 2026 LOPE moved 18.9% in one session, against the 3.3% a day that options had priced: 5.7 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across LOPE's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 9.2%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in LOPE
How does LOPE score on business quality?
Grand Canyon Education's overall quality score is 74 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 40.3%ROIC | 15.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 63 | 1.08xFCF / net income | 1.13x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 46 | 7.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 9.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 83 | 8.9%Net buybacks / market value | 5.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 83 | -0.20xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.30x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 50 | 2.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.9 pts |
How does LOPE compare with similar companies?
The companies in education & training services closest to Grand Canyon Education in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVSA Covista Inc. | $112.96 | $125.59 | +11.2% | Fairly valued |
| LRN Stride, Inc. | $74.87 | $83.03 | +10.9% | Fairly valued |
| LAUR Laureate Education, Inc. | $33.29 | $34.05 | +2.3% | Fairly valued |
| PRDO Perdoceo Education Corporation | $26.55 | $37.04 | +39.5% | Undervalued |
| STRA Strategic Education, Inc. | $58.47 | $82.60 | +41.3% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for LOPE, the peer-implied price, is $159.64 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All education & training services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Grand Canyon Education at a glance
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (GCE) furnishes a broad spectrum of educational support services to higher education institutions throughout the United States.
- Market value
- $3.9B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Education & Training Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +5.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- -0.07
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. LOPE was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Grand Canyon Education on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for LOPE was $164.31. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $151.24, a change of -8.0%. The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Grand Canyon Education's valuation
Is Grand Canyon Education stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, LOPE reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $151.24 a share against a last close of $122.25, a gap of +23.7%.
What is LOPE's fair value?
$151.24 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $128.34 to $176.34.
What price range does the model give LOPE?
$109.57 to $139.86 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Grand Canyon Education report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 17 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has LOPE moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 9.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was -17.8% around the report of 4 Nov 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for LOPE is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on LOPE
The model has an idea open on LOPE under Scorecard Leaders since 5 Nov 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on LOPE with their outcomes. A free account is enough.