NYSE: LRN · Education & Training Services
Stride (LRN) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Stride (LRN) at $82.64 a share. The stock last closed at $78.89, which puts the model's fair value 4.8% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Stride, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Stride, Inc. is an ed-tech company that specializes in providing a variety of online learning tools and services.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $82.64 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -1.3% since the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $83.72. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days, built from the fair value, is $69.33 to $100.76 and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, as shown by 4,327 past valuations. The evidence grade is Medium.
The model scores the business at 68 out of 100 on overall quality against comparable companies. The model compares Stride, Inc. with Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE), Covista Inc. (CVSA), Laureate Education, Inc. (LAUR), Perdoceo Education Corporation (PRDO), and Strategic Education, Inc. (STRA). The stock's median move around its last 8 earnings reports was 11.1%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give LRN?
The calibrated range for LRN over 63 trading days is $69.33 to $100.76. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $59.22 to $114.12. In 55% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does LRN score on business quality?
Stride's overall quality score is 68 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 93 | 24.3%ROIC | 12.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 48 | 1.05xFCF / net income | 1.29x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 37 | 4.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 73 | 5.6%Net buybacks / market value | 6.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 94 | -0.36xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.09x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 60 | 2.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.5 pts |
How does LRN compare with similar companies?
The companies in education & training services closest to Stride in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOPE Grand Canyon Education, Inc. | $155.79 | $153.00 | -1.8% | Fairly valued |
| CVSA Covista Inc. | $125.48 | $122.12 | -2.7% | Fairly valued |
| LAUR Laureate Education, Inc. | $38.62 | $34.86 | -9.7% | Fairly valued |
| PRDO Perdoceo Education Corporation | $31.91 | $34.76 | +8.9% | Fairly valued |
| STRA Strategic Education, Inc. | $79.72 | $77.79 | -2.4% | Fairly valued |
All education & training services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does LRN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Stride's next earnings report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 17.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How LRN moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 11.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | +3.1% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | -2.7% |
| 27 Jan 2026 | +15.6% |
| 28 Oct 2025 | -54.1% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | +13.8% |
| 29 Apr 2025 | +8.4% |
| 28 Jan 2025 | +7.6% |
| 22 Oct 2024 | +38.8% |
Stride at a glance
Stride, Inc. is an ed-tech company that specializes in providing a variety of online learning tools and services.
- Market value
- $3.3B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Education & Training Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +0.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- -0.25
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Stride on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for LRN was $83.72. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $82.64, a change of -1.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Stride's valuation
Is Stride stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, LRN reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $82.64 a share against a last close of $78.89, a gap of +4.8%.
What is LRN's fair value?
$82.64 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $59.22 to $114.12.
What price range does the model give LRN?
$69.33 to $100.76 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Stride report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has LRN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 11.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was -54.1% around the report of 28 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for LRN is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.