NYSE: TXNM · Regulated Electric
TXNM Energy (TXNM) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values TXNM Energy (TXNM) at $68.36 a share. The stock last closed at $58.41, which puts the model's fair value 17.0% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. TXNM Energy, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
TXNM Energy, Inc. supplies electricity and related services across the United States.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $68.36 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The fair value moved -0.1% since the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $68.46. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $57.03 to $82.87, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score is 59 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares TXNM Energy, Inc. with IDACORP, Inc., Portland General Electric Company, OGE Energy Corp., Northwestern Energy Group Inc, Pinnacle West Capital Corporation, MGE Energy, Inc., Alliant Energy Corporation, and Evergy, Inc. The median size of moves around the last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 0.6%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give TXNM?
The calibrated range for TXNM over 63 trading days is $57.03 to $82.87. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $52.41 to $87.86. In 68% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does TXNM score on business quality?
TXNM Energy's overall quality score is 59 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 81 | 10.5%ROIC | 5.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 29 | -2.56xFCF / net income | -0.78x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 77 | 9.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 1.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 44 | 0.2%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 65 | 0.73xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.67x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 22 | 4.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.3 pts |
How does TXNM compare with similar companies?
The companies in regulated electric closest to TXNM Energy in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IDA IDACORP, Inc. | $132.79 | $114.96 | -13.4% | Fairly valued |
| POR Portland General Electric Company | $44.55 | $59.21 | +32.9% | Undervalued |
| OGE OGE Energy Corp. | $45.34 | $50.92 | +12.3% | Fairly valued |
| NWE Northwestern Energy Group Inc | $69.27 | $68.15 | -1.6% | Fairly valued |
| PNW Pinnacle West Capital Corporation | $95.92 | $113.33 | +18.2% | Undervalued |
| MGEE MGE Energy, Inc. | $70.77 | $74.57 | +5.4% | Fairly valued |
| LNT Alliant Energy Corporation | $64.33 | $61.71 | -4.1% | Fairly valued |
| EVRG Evergy, Inc. | $79.17 | $77.08 | -2.6% | Fairly valued |
When does TXNM report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
TXNM Energy's next earnings report is scheduled for 30 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How TXNM moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 0.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | -0.6% |
| 1 May 2026 | +0.2% |
| 27 Feb 2026 | +0.1% |
| 31 Oct 2025 | +0.1% |
| 1 Aug 2025 | +0.6% |
| 9 May 2025 | +11.2% |
| 21 Feb 2025 | +1.7% |
| 1 Nov 2024 | -2.0% |
TXNM Energy at a glance
TXNM Energy, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, supplies electricity and related services across the United States.
- Market value
- $6.5B
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Regulated Electric
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +10.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.04
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices TXNM Energy on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for TXNM was $68.46. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $68.36, a change of -0.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about TXNM Energy's valuation
Is TXNM Energy stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, TXNM reads as Undervalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $68.36 a share against a last close of $58.41, a gap of +17.0%.
What is TXNM's fair value?
$68.36 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $52.41 to $87.86.
What price range does the model give TXNM?
$57.03 to $82.87 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does TXNM Energy report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 30 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has TXNM moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 0.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +11.2% around the report of 9 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for TXNM is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.