NASDAQ: OKTA · Infrastructure Software
Okta (OKTA) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Okta (OKTA) at $196.62 a share. The stock last closed at $171.16, which puts the model's fair value 14.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Okta, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $207.28 to $196.62 (-5.1%). The companies the model compares it with now trade on lower multiples: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $171.16 is 14.9% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 1 Dec 2026. Options prices imply a move of about 26% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give OKTA?
The calibrated range for OKTA over 63 trading days is $130.42 to $239.03. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that OKTA's own options imply (91% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $141.82 to $269.00. In 44% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Okta, Inc. delivers identity management solutions for large corporations, small and medium-sized businesses, educational institutions, charitable organisations and governmental bodies.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of Okta at $196.62 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $207.28, so the fair value moved -5.1%. The model says the companies it compares Okta with now trade on lower multiples, which accounts for most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $148.21 to $260.99. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium, based on input completeness, the number of comparable companies and the spread of outcomes, but not on whether the fair value is right.
Okta scores 62 out of 100 on the model's overall quality measure. Balance sheet scores 100, with net debt to EBITDA of -1.72x against a peer median of 2.96x. Stability scores 0, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 17.8 points against a peer median of 6.5 points. The model compares Okta with Twilio Inc., Zscaler, Inc., VeriSign, Inc., Block, Inc., Corpay, Inc., F5, Inc., Nutanix, Inc. and Gen Digital Inc.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does OKTA report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Okta's next earnings report is scheduled for 1 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 11.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 7 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. OKTA's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 26.4% over one month.
On 2 Nov 2026 OKTA moved 11.2% in one session, against the 5.3% a day that options had priced: 2.1 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across OKTA's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 13.9%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in OKTA
How does OKTA score on business quality?
Okta's overall quality score is 62 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 72 | 3.4%ROIC | -1.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 73 | 3.28xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 51 | 11.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 19.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 58 | 1.3%Net buybacks / market value | 1.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | -1.72xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.96x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 17.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 6.5 pts |
How does OKTA compare with similar companies?
The companies in infrastructure software closest to Okta in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TWLO Twilio Inc. | $200.96 | $252.35 | +25.6% | Undervalued |
| ZS Zscaler, Inc. | $203.88 | $261.10 | +28.1% | Undervalued |
| VRSN VeriSign, Inc. | $312.06 | $273.25 | -12.4% | Fairly valued |
| XYZ Block, Inc. | $84.04 | $73.61 | -12.4% | Fairly valued |
| CPAY Corpay, Inc. | $447.00 | $438.19 | -2.0% | Fairly valued |
| FFIV F5, Inc. | $311.74 | $431.47 | +38.4% | Undervalued |
| NTNX Nutanix, Inc. | $58.55 | $65.10 | +11.2% | Fairly valued |
| GEN Gen Digital Inc. | $30.60 | $41.11 | +34.3% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for OKTA, the peer-implied price, is $165.40 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All infrastructure software stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Okta at a glance
Okta, Inc. delivers comprehensive identity management solutions tailored for a diverse clientele, including large corporations, small and medium-sized businesses, educational institutions, charitable organizations, and governmental bodies, operating both.
- Market value
- $34.8B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Infrastructure Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +10.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 26
- Beta to the US market
- 1.50
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 55.1% of the 1,060 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. OKTA was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Okta on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for OKTA was $207.28. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $196.62, a change of -5.1%. The companies the model compares it with now trade on lower multiples: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Okta's valuation
Is Okta stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, OKTA reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $196.62 a share against a last close of $171.16, a gap of +14.9%.
What is OKTA's fair value?
$196.62 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $141.82 to $269.00.
What price range does the model give OKTA?
$130.42 to $239.03 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Okta report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 1 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has OKTA moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 13.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was +37.7% around the report of 28 May 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for OKTA is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on OKTA
The model holds no idea open on OKTA today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on OKTA with their outcomes. A free account is enough.