NASDAQ: OKTA ยท Infrastructure Software
Okta (OKTA) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 19 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Okta (OKTA) at $173.28 a share. The stock last closed at $182.37, which puts the model's fair value 5.0% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 18 Sep 2026. Okta, Inc.
What price range does the model give OKTA?
The calibrated range for OKTA over 63 trading days is $160.81 to $231.24. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that OKTA's own options imply (52% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $125.14 to $236.86. In 45% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does OKTA score on business quality?
Okta's overall quality score is 57 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 49 | 3.4%ROIC | 4.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 78 | 3.28xFCF / net income | 1.31x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 52 | 11.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 15.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 50 | 1.2%Net buybacks / market value | 2.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | -1.80xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.85x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 11 | 17.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 7.2 pts |
How does OKTA compare with similar companies?
The companies in infrastructure software closest to Okta in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZS Zscaler, Inc. | $197.31 | $237.35 | +20.3% | Undervalued |
| VRSN VeriSign, Inc. | $303.12 | $277.15 | -8.6% | Fairly valued |
| CPAY Corpay, Inc. | $397.76 | $339.47 | -14.7% | Fairly valued |
| TWLO Twilio Inc. | $243.84 | $292.16 | +19.8% | Low model confidence |
| FFIV F5, Inc. | $432.03 | $423.48 | -2.0% | Fairly valued |
| XYZ Block, Inc. | $76.28 | $64.25 | -15.8% | Overvalued |
| NTNX Nutanix, Inc. | $69.80 | $61.74 | -11.5% | Fairly valued |
| GEN Gen Digital Inc. | $29.01 | $37.15 | +28.1% | Undervalued |
All infrastructure software stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does OKTA report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Okta's next earnings report is scheduled for 1 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 18 Sep 2026 imply a move of about 7.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. OKTA's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 14.9% over one month.
On 14 Sep 2026 OKTA moved 12.0% in one session, against the 3.3% a day that options had priced: 3.6 times the implied size.
How OKTA moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 8.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 26 Aug 2026 | +32.4% |
| 28 May 2026 | +37.7% |
| 4 Mar 2026 | +9.8% |
| 2 Dec 2025 | +7.1% |
| 26 Aug 2025 | +1.8% |
| 27 May 2025 | -2.7% |
| 3 Mar 2025 | +19.7% |
| 3 Dec 2024 | +6.5% |
Okta at a glance
Okta, Inc. delivers comprehensive identity management solutions tailored for a diverse clientele, including large corporations, small and medium-sized businesses, educational institutions, charitable organizations, and governmental bodies, operating both.
- Market value
- $30.3B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Infrastructure Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +10.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 25
- Beta to the US market
- 1.29
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Okta on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 12 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for OKTA was $160.55. As of 19 Sep 2026 it is $173.28, a change of +7.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Okta's valuation
Is Okta stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, OKTA reads as Fairly valued as of 19 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $173.28 a share against a last close of $182.37, a gap of -5.0%.
What is OKTA's fair value?
$173.28 a share as of 19 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $125.14 to $236.86.
What price range does the model give OKTA?
$160.81 to $231.24 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026.
When does Okta report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 1 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has OKTA moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 8.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +37.7% around the report of 28 May 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
Model confidence for OKTA is medium. Confidence reflects how complete the inputs are and how well comparable companies explain the valuation. It is not a probability that the price reaches the fair value.