NYSE: CPAY · Infrastructure Software
Corpay (CPAY) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Corpay (CPAY) at $339.32 a share. The stock last closed at $394.60, which puts the model's fair value 14.0% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Corpay, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Corpay, Inc. operates as a global financial technology firm, delivering payment solutions that assist both businesses and individual consumers in efficiently managing a diverse range of expenditures.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $339.32 a share for Corpay, Inc. on 26 Sep 2026. This was the midpoint of 2,000 simulations and was the same fair value as the previous run on 19 Sep 2026. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $284.68 to $413.74, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, holding the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade was High.
The business had an overall quality score of 50 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its growth quality was 83, stability was 89, profitability was 44, capital discipline was 28, balance sheet was 31, and earnings quality was 27. The model compared it with VeriSign, Inc., F5, Inc., Okta, Inc., Nutanix, Inc., Akamai Technologies, Inc., DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc., and Twilio Inc. The stock's median move around its last 8 earnings reports was 4.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CPAY?
The calibrated range for CPAY over 63 trading days is $284.68 to $413.74. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $248.46 to $443.87. In 31% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CPAY score on business quality?
Corpay's overall quality score is 50 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 44 | 12.8%ROIC | 13.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 27 | 1.44xFCF / net income | 1.59x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 83 | 13.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 28 | 6.9%Net buybacks / market value | 7.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 31 | 3.07xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.49x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 89 | 0.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.6 pts |
How does CPAY compare with similar companies?
The companies in infrastructure software closest to Corpay in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRSN VeriSign, Inc. | $288.32 | $262.57 | -8.9% | Fairly valued |
| FFIV F5, Inc. | $454.04 | $449.07 | -1.1% | Fairly valued |
| ZS Zscaler, Inc. | $196.60 | $240.89 | +22.5% | Low evidence grade |
| OKTA Okta, Inc. | $211.49 | $207.40 | -1.9% | Fairly valued |
| NTNX Nutanix, Inc. | $72.29 | $60.80 | -15.9% | Overvalued |
| AKAM Akamai Technologies, Inc. | $108.92 | $124.31 | +14.1% | Fairly valued |
| DOCN DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. | $140.07 | $136.66 | -2.4% | Fairly valued |
| TWLO Twilio Inc. | $294.58 | $321.84 | +9.3% | Fairly valued |
All infrastructure software stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does CPAY report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Corpay's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 3.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How CPAY moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | +0.4% |
| 7 May 2026 | +12.6% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | +14.6% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | +6.4% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | -4.4% |
| 6 May 2025 | -0.7% |
| 5 Feb 2025 | +2.6% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | +4.9% |
Corpay at a glance
Corpay, Inc. operates as a global financial technology firm, delivering payment solutions that assist both businesses and individual consumers in efficiently managing a diverse range of expenditures.
- Market value
- $26.0B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Infrastructure Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $5.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +17.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- 0.78
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Corpay on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CPAY was $339.37. It is unchanged at $339.32 as of 26 Sep 2026. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Corpay's valuation
Is Corpay stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CPAY reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $339.32 a share against a last close of $394.60, a gap of -14.0%.
What is CPAY's fair value?
$339.32 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $248.46 to $443.87.
What price range does the model give CPAY?
$284.68 to $413.74 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Corpay report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CPAY moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +14.6% around the report of 4 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CPAY is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.