NASDAQ: ZS · Infrastructure Software
Zscaler (ZS) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 10 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Zscaler (ZS) at $266.08 a share. The stock last closed at $228.66, which puts the model's fair value 16.4% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 13 Oct 2026. Zscaler, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 10 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $238.67 to $266.08 (+11.5%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $228.66 is 16.4% below it: Undervalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 24 Nov 2026. Options prices imply a move of about 15% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 17 Oct 2026.
What price range does the model give ZS?
The calibrated range for ZS over 63 trading days is $196.74 to $283.58. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ZS's own options imply (52% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $164.12 to $423.31. In 58% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 10 Oct 2026
Zscaler, Inc. (ZS) is a global provider of cloud-based security solutions.
Faircurve's model on 10 Oct 2026 gave a fair value of $266.08 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +11.5% since the previous run on 3 Oct 2026, which gave $238.67, with the model stating that the stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $196.74 to $283.58, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026), and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The model's overall quality score is 53 out of 100, its composite of the six quality factors, a score against comparable companies. Standout quality factors include Earnings quality at 75 and Growth quality at 71, with Revenue growth, trailing 25.4% against a peer median of 21.8%. Capital discipline scored 14, with Net buybacks / market value 0.0% against a peer median of 0.9%, and Stability scored 13, with EBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y 9.7 pts against a peer median of 4.5 pts. Faircurve's model compares Zscaler with Okta, Inc. (OKTA), Twilio Inc. (TWLO), Block, Inc. (XYZ), VeriSign, Inc. (VRSN), F5, Inc. (FFIV), Corpay, Inc. (CPAY), Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX), and DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. (DOCN).
Written from the figures on this page for the 10 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does ZS report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Zscaler's next earnings report is scheduled for 24 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 13 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 9 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. ZS's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 15.1% over one month.
On 9 Oct 2026 ZS moved 7.8% in one session, against the 3.2% a day that options had priced: 2.5 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across ZS's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.9%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in ZS
How does ZS score on business quality?
Zscaler's overall quality score is 53 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 48 | -3.8%ROIC | -3.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 75 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 71 | 25.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 21.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 14 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 53 | 4.97xNet debt / EBITDA | -0.01x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 13 | 9.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 4.5 pts |
How does ZS compare with similar companies?
The companies in infrastructure software closest to Zscaler in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKTA Okta, Inc. | $226.53 | $224.75 | -0.8% | Fairly valued |
| TWLO Twilio Inc. | $281.59 | $334.48 | +18.8% | Undervalued |
| XYZ Block, Inc. | $76.86 | $69.22 | -9.9% | Fairly valued |
| VRSN VeriSign, Inc. | $301.76 | $313.43 | +3.9% | Fairly valued |
| FFIV F5, Inc. | $476.24 | $524.18 | +10.1% | Fairly valued |
| CPAY Corpay, Inc. | $399.10 | $395.28 | -1.0% | Fairly valued |
| NTNX Nutanix, Inc. | $72.88 | $69.38 | -4.8% | Fairly valued |
| DOCN DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. | $128.21 | $130.44 | +1.7% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for ZS, the peer-implied price, is $393.87 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All infrastructure software stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Zscaler at a glance
Globally recognized, Zscaler, Inc. functions as a leading provider of cloud-based security solutions.
- Market value
- $37.8B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Infrastructure Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +17.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 25
- Beta to the US market
- 1.08
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 13 Oct 2026, 53.0% of the 1,094 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. ZS was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Zscaler on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 3 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for ZS was $238.67. As of 10 Oct 2026 it is $266.08, a change of +11.5%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Zscaler's valuation
Is Zscaler stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ZS reads as Undervalued as of 10 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $266.08 a share against a last close of $228.66, a gap of +16.4%.
What is ZS's fair value?
$266.08 a share as of 10 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $164.12 to $423.31.
What price range does the model give ZS?
$196.74 to $283.58 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026.
When does Zscaler report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 24 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ZS moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was -30.7% around the report of 26 May 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ZS is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on ZS
The model holds no idea open on ZS today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on ZS with their outcomes. A free account is enough.