NASDAQ: NTNX · Infrastructure Software
Nutanix (NTNX) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 4 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values Nutanix (NTNX) at $65.10 a share. The stock last closed at $58.55, which puts the model's fair value 11.2% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Nutanix, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 4 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $68.38 to $65.10 (-4.8%).
What the model makes of itThe price of $58.55 is 11.2% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 24 Nov 2026. Options prices imply a move of about 17% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give NTNX?
The calibrated range for NTNX over 63 trading days is $49.26 to $72.40. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that NTNX's own options imply (58% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $45.16 to $92.72. In 51% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 4 Nov 2026
Nutanix, Inc. delivers an enterprise cloud platform across North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific region, the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa.
Faircurve's model gives Nutanix a fair value of $65.10 a share on 4 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 31 Oct 2026, gave $68.38, so the fair value moved -4.8%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $49.26 to $72.40. Calibration uses 6,661 past valuations, refreshed on 31 Oct 2026. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence Medium. That grade reflects input completeness, the number and agreement of comparables, and the width of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Nutanix scores 47 out of 100 on overall quality against comparable companies. Three factors stand out. Earnings quality scores 7, with free cash flow to net income at 0.56x against a peer median of 1.70x. Stability scores 17, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility at 16.7 pts against a peer median of 3.7 pts. Profitability scores 72, with ROIC at 19.3% against a peer median of 12.9%. The model compares Nutanix with Gen Digital Inc. (GEN), F5, Inc. (FFIV), GoDaddy Inc. (GDDY), Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM), Corpay, Inc. (CPAY), VeriSign, Inc. (VRSN) and Twilio Inc. (TWLO).
Written from the figures on this page for the 4 Nov 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does NTNX report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Nutanix's next earnings report is scheduled for 24 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 7.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. NTNX's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 16.8% over one month.
On 5 Nov 2026 NTNX moved 8.1% in one session, against the 3.7% a day that options had priced: 2.2 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across NTNX's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.0%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in NTNX
How does NTNX score on business quality?
Nutanix's overall quality score is 47 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 72 | 19.3%ROIC | 12.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 7 | 0.56xFCF / net income | 1.70x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 70 | 12.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 8.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 42 | 3.7%Net buybacks / market value | 2.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 43 | 1.85xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.16x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 17 | 16.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.7 pts |
How does NTNX compare with similar companies?
The companies in infrastructure software closest to Nutanix in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEN Gen Digital Inc. | $30.60 | $41.11 | +34.3% | Undervalued |
| FFIV F5, Inc. | $311.74 | $431.47 | +38.4% | Undervalued |
| GDDY GoDaddy Inc. | $120.12 | $136.99 | +14.0% | Fairly valued |
| AKAM Akamai Technologies, Inc. | $77.84 | $97.13 | +24.8% | Undervalued |
| CPAY Corpay, Inc. | $447.00 | $438.19 | -2.0% | Fairly valued |
| VRSN VeriSign, Inc. | $312.06 | $273.25 | -12.4% | Fairly valued |
| DOCN DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. | $70.70 | $93.05 | +31.6% | Low evidence grade |
| TWLO Twilio Inc. | $200.96 | $252.35 | +25.6% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for NTNX, the peer-implied price, is $66.49 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All infrastructure software stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Nutanix at a glance
Operating across North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific region, the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa, Nutanix, Inc. delivers an enterprise cloud platform.
- Market value
- $18.2B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Infrastructure Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +12.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- 0.81
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 55.1% of the 1,060 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. NTNX was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Nutanix on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 31 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for NTNX was $68.38. As of 4 Nov 2026 it is $65.10, a change of -4.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Nutanix's valuation
Is Nutanix stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, NTNX reads as Fairly valued as of 4 Nov 2026. The model's fair value is $65.10 a share against a last close of $58.55, a gap of +11.2%.
What is NTNX's fair value?
$65.10 a share as of 4 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $45.16 to $92.72.
What price range does the model give NTNX?
$49.26 to $72.40 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Nutanix report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 24 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has NTNX moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +18.3% around the report of 28 Aug 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for NTNX is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on NTNX
The model holds no idea open on NTNX today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on NTNX with their outcomes. A free account is enough.