NYSE: PAYC · Application Software
Paycom Software (PAYC) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Paycom Software (PAYC) at $278.72 a share. The stock last closed at $262.99, which puts the model's fair value 6.0% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Paycom Software, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $290.02 to $278.72 (-3.9%). The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $262.99 is 6.0% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNo report date on file. Options prices imply a move of about 27% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give PAYC?
The calibrated range for PAYC over 63 trading days is $199.16 to $370.07. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that PAYC's own options imply (94% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $182.95 to $415.32. In 54% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Paycom Software, Inc., established in 1998 and headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, provides a comprehensive, cloud-based human capital management (HCM) platform.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $278.72 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $290.02, so the fair value moved -3.9%. In the model's own words, the stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $199.16 to $370.07. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence Medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model's overall quality score for the company is 68 out of 100, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Profitability stands out at 93, with ROIC of 34.1% against a peer median of 15.2%. Growth quality is lowest at 39, with trailing revenue growth of 8.9% against a peer median of 12.5%. Stability scores 43, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 2.7 pts against 1.9 pts. The model compares the company with Bentley Systems, Guidewire Software, Manhattan Associates, DocuSign, Fair Isaac, Tyler Technologies and Dynatrace. Paylocity Holding Corporation is also a comparable company, but it has no verdict on this date.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does PAYC report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 24.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 15 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. PAYC's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 27.0% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across PAYC's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.8%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in PAYC
How does PAYC score on business quality?
Paycom Software's overall quality score is 68 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 93 | 34.1%ROIC | 15.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 78 | 1.17xFCF / net income | 1.84x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 39 | 8.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 12.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 62 | 14.4%Net buybacks / market value | 3.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 62 | 0.87xNet debt / EBITDA | -0.30x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 43 | 2.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.9 pts |
How does PAYC compare with similar companies?
The companies in application software closest to Paycom Software in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BSY Bentley Systems, Incorporated | $42.13 | $37.39 | -11.3% | Fairly valued |
| GWRE Guidewire Software, Inc. | $161.04 | $138.90 | -13.7% | Fairly valued |
| MANH Manhattan Associates, Inc. | $255.14 | $218.38 | -14.4% | Fairly valued |
| DOCU DocuSign, Inc. | $80.36 | $110.44 | +37.4% | Undervalued |
| FICO Fair Isaac Corporation | $724.38 | $854.23 | +17.9% | Undervalued |
| TYL Tyler Technologies, Inc. | $404.24 | $391.55 | -3.1% | Fairly valued |
| PCTY Paylocity Holding Corporation | $171.12 | $176.41 | +3.1% | Low evidence grade |
| DT Dynatrace, Inc. | $47.03 | $61.58 | +30.9% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for PAYC, the peer-implied price, is $355.11 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Paycom Software at a glance
Paycom Software, Inc., established in 1998 and headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, provides a comprehensive, cloud-based human capital management (HCM) platform.
- Market value
- $11.9B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Application Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +7.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 13
- Beta to the US market
- 0.01
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. PAYC was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Paycom Software on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for PAYC was $290.02. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $278.72, a change of -3.9%. The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Paycom Software's valuation
Is Paycom Software stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, PAYC reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $278.72 a share against a last close of $262.99, a gap of +6.0%.
What is PAYC's fair value?
$278.72 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $182.95 to $415.32.
What price range does the model give PAYC?
$199.16 to $370.07 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
How much has PAYC moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was +24.8% around the report of 30 Oct 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PAYC is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on PAYC
The model holds no idea open on PAYC today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on PAYC with their outcomes. A free account is enough.