NASDAQ: PRGS · Infrastructure Software
Progress Software (PRGS) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Progress Software (PRGS) at $46.74 a share. The stock last closed at $36.90, which puts the model's fair value 26.7% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Progress Software Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Progress Software Corporation specializes in providing technology solutions that enable businesses to create, launch, and oversee their software applications.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $46.74 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $45.52, a move of +2.7%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days was $39.21 to $56.99, built from the fair value. This range held the price 60% of the time. The model gave an evidence grade of Medium.
The company's overall quality score was 72 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability score was 86, earnings quality 68, growth quality 74, capital discipline 57, balance sheet 46, and stability 71. The model compared it with A10 Networks, Inc., LiveRamp Holdings, Inc., Payoneer Global Inc., Euronet Worldwide, Inc., Teradata Corporation, and NetScout Systems, Inc. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports included -7.3% on 30 Sep 2026 and +15.7% on 30 Jun 2026, with a median size of 7.3%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give PRGS?
The calibrated range for PRGS over 63 trading days is $39.21 to $56.99. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 50% of the time over 63 trading days, and 47% ended below it; the typical move was +4.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $31.75 to $63.98. In 71% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does PRGS score on business quality?
Progress Software's overall quality score is 72 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 86 | 9.4%ROIC | 3.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 68 | 3.45xFCF / net income | 4.80x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 74 | 29.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 9.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 57 | 7.4%Net buybacks / market value | 3.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 46 | 3.91xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.61x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 71 | 5.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 7.6 pts |
How does PRGS compare with similar companies?
The companies in infrastructure software closest to Progress Software in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATEN A10 Networks, Inc. | $27.63 | $23.12 | -16.3% | Overvalued |
| RAMP LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. | $37.65 | $50.24 | +33.4% | Undervalued |
| PAYO Payoneer Global Inc. | $7.15 | $6.22 | -13.0% | Fairly valued |
| EEFT Euronet Worldwide, Inc. | $63.50 | $88.49 | +39.4% | Undervalued |
| TDC Teradata Corporation | $30.14 | $32.58 | +8.1% | Fairly valued |
| NTCT NetScout Systems, Inc. | $40.96 | $40.10 | -2.1% | Fairly valued |
| SABR Sabre Corporation | $1.97 | $1.53 | -22.3% | Low evidence grade |
| FOUR Shift4 Payments, Inc. | $36.17 | $44.74 | +23.7% | Low evidence grade |
All infrastructure software stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does PRGS report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Progress Software's next earnings report is scheduled for 19 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 14.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How PRGS moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2026 | -7.3% |
| 28 Sep 2026 | +0.3% |
| 30 Jun 2026 | +15.7% |
| 30 Mar 2026 | -7.3% |
| 20 Jan 2026 | +6.5% |
| 29 Sep 2025 | +4.5% |
| 30 Jun 2025 | -12.9% |
| 31 Mar 2025 | +12.4% |
Progress Software at a glance
Progress Software Corporation (PRGS) specializes in providing technology solutions that enable businesses to create, launch, and oversee their software applications.
- Market value
- $1.6B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Infrastructure Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +3.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- 0.39
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Progress Software on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for PRGS was $45.52. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $46.74, a change of +2.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Progress Software's valuation
Is Progress Software stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, PRGS reads as Undervalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $46.74 a share against a last close of $36.90, a gap of +26.7%.
What is PRGS's fair value?
$46.74 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $31.75 to $63.98.
What price range does the model give PRGS?
$39.21 to $56.99 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Progress Software report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 19 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PRGS moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was +15.7% around the report of 30 Jun 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PRGS is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.